Is there a chance that the price of Bitcoin will reach 134,000 dollars in Q4?

Recently, the price of Bitcoin (BTC) has been maintained within a narrow range, moving between converging trend lines after a rise to the sky at the beginning of the month.

As of the time of the update, Bitcoin is trading at 106,301.80 USD, down slightly by 3.14% in the past 24 hours. On a weekly basis, this digital coin has lost 7.1% of its value and decreased by 13.67% compared to last month. The market is assessing the bullish pennant pattern along with the impact from the new repo liquidity pump by the Federal Reserve.

Bitcoin price is consolidating near a key resistance level

According to technical analysis experts, the current price movement is forming a bullish flag pattern – which usually appears after a strong rise and a short accumulation period. This pattern typically signals that the upward trend will continue if the price surpasses the upper resistance level.

On most charts, the important resistance area is identified around the mark of 134,000 USD, coinciding with recent swing highs and being the upper limit of the pattern. However, Bitcoin has not yet been able to surpass the historical peak of about 126,198 USD.

The trading volume is increasing as the price range gradually improves, indicating the potential for significant volatility. Experts believe that stable spot demand along with strong retail flows are supportive factors for the scenario of testing the 134,000 USD mark if resistance is broken.

Derivative market data also plays an important role. Currently, there are about 4.2 billion USD in open short positions, creating both risks and opportunities: if prices break out, these positions must be closed, increasing the upward momentum.

However, not all signals support the upward trend. Daily momentum indicators are weakening, indicating that short-term strength may be diminishing. The RSI index – a momentum measure from 0 to 100 – is currently declining, reflecting a weakening of demand.

Source: X## Macroeconomic context: Liquidity and impact from the Fed

Macroeconomic developments continue to impact market positions through liquidity channels. The Fed has just added about 29 billion USD through repo operations (, a type of contract in which one party ), usually a bank(, agrees to sell an asset, such as securities, to the other party with the agreement to repurchase that asset at a certain point in the future at a predetermined price ( overnight, a move that previously occurred in 2020 when abundant liquidity drove strong price increases in risk assets.

The repo activity helps to increase the temporary cash amount for major dealers, thereby spreading the capital to a larger market. Digital assets like Bitcoin often benefit when USD liquidity improves, although the extent of the impact depends on risk appetite and market volatility.

Many experts believe that liquidity and digital assets are closely related. Analyst @Wealthmanagerrr on X once said: “Liquidity pumping and risk assets often fluctuate together. Pay attention to the spillover effect into cryptocurrency when repo activity rises to the sky.” This viewpoint reflects the expectation that a high repo balance will favor risk assets, including Bitcoin.

This context provides additional momentum for buyers, as liquidity factors and positive technical signals reinforce each other. Some optimistic forecasts even suggest that Bitcoin could reach 250,000 USD by the end of the year if the upward trend is reestablished – this increase is equivalent to about 125% compared to the current level, far exceeding previous average monthly increases. In comparison, Bitcoin's strongest month recorded an increase of about 90% in 2021, and that remains a historical exception.

These comparisons help investors set reasonable expectations based on market realities rather than hot headlines.

Price zones to watch: Key support and resistance

The technical chart identifies the nearest support zone between 105,000 – 108,000 USD, where buyers have successfully defended in recent corrections. If this zone is breached, the price may continue to decline towards the 100,000 USD mark – a round number that has previously attracted strong demand.

On the upward side, the clear confirmation signal is a breakout and a close above the top of the pennant pattern, opening up the opportunity to test the 134,000 USD mark.

Historical statistics show that the bullish flag pattern succeeds only about 54% of the time, so technical analysts prioritize confirmation over prediction, focusing on breakout levels and closing strength.

The position in the derivatives market can also affect price movements: if the price rises to the sky, short positions will come under pressure; conversely, if there is a rejection, the pressure will decrease.

The spot movement of BTC is also very important for the durability of the trend. The volume and market breadth maintained will support a better rise to the sky compared to weak breakouts.

Macroeconomic factors complete the overall picture: if liquidity continues to be added, it will support the risk appetite, while if it reverses, it will weaken the momentum.

Mr. Giáo