The myth of a 100% win rate comes to an end, how the Whale empties itself.

Written by: Sanqing, Foresight News

On November 5th, an anonymous whale who had previously achieved a 100% win rate with fourteen consecutive wins on Hyperliquid was forced to liquidate. The account, which had reached a peak profit of over $25.34 million, fell to a net loss of $30.02 million, leaving only about $1.4 million in margin. This trading cycle, lasting 21 days, began with precise short selling and subsequent long positions on October 14th, reaching the peak of the profit curve on October 28th. In just a week after that, due to concentrated leverage, market corrections, and a chain reaction of counter-trend positions, all profits and principal evaporated this morning.

Source of the image: Hyperbot

From accumulation to the peak

On October 14, 2025, an anonymous whale began its consecutive fourteen profitable trading cycles on Hyperliquid, with the address:

0xc2a30212a8ddac9e123944d6e29faddce994e5f2

He bought 5,255 ETH, and the next day sold all of it for 22 million USDC, shorting BTC with about 5x leverage. Just one night later, he closed the position at 8 AM on October 16, making a profit of 2.6 million dollars. This was his first profitable trade in a row, and also the cleanest one throughout the entire cycle.

In the following week, he precisely switched directions amid fluctuations. On the morning of October 17, he went long and increased his position twice, expanding his holdings to 222 million USD. Before the market dropped in the early hours of October 22, he closed about 300 million USD of long positions in advance, making a profit of 6.04 million USD. This move became a representative action referred to in tweets as “the brother's reaction is quick enough,” and it established his 100% win rate myth.

From October 24 to 28, it was his highlight period. He continuously increased his positions in BTC and ETH in batches, keeping the leverage within 8 times, expanding the position from 274 million to 447 million USD. On the profit and loss curve of Hyperbot, that is the only complete segment of an upward green line – at 6:12 AM on October 28, the account showed an unrealized profit of 25.349 million USD.

This is the last unilateral rise in his profit and loss curve. In the following week, the rhythm began to show subtle shifts.

From profit-taking to obsession

On October 29, the whale chose to close profitable positions first, while continuing to hold onto losing ones. At 4 AM, as the market dropped, he closed a $268 million BTC long position, making only $1.4 million in profit, and in the afternoon, he closed a $163 million ETH long position, earning $1.63 million, leaving only the SOL that was stuck.

Two days later, he increased his position in SOL to a total of $105 million, with an average cost of $198.3. In the early hours of October 30, remarks from Federal Reserve Chairman Powell triggered a brief market decline, prompting him to buy the dip in BTC and ETH while simultaneously expanding his SOL position. That night, all three positions were underwater, with an unrealized loss of $9.73 million.

At 4 a.m. on October 31, losses exceeded 18 million dollars at their peak. As the market rebounded, the unrealized losses narrowed, and the whale attempted to hold on to the positions until breaking even. By 8 a.m. on November 3, the unrealized losses shrank to 1.98 million dollars, just one step away from breaking even, yet he did not reduce his positions. Just three hours later, the market turned downward, and the four long positions of this whale, who had a record of 14 consecutive wins, went back into the state of unrealized losses.

He was just one step away from escaping unharmed, but in waiting and hesitation, he handed the initiative back to the market.

From stop loss to self-destruction

In the early hours of November 4, his undefeated record officially came to an end. He cut losses by liquidating long positions in BTC, ETH, and SOL worth $258 million, resulting in a loss of $15.65 million. This figure is comparable to the $15.83 million profit he earned over the previous 20 days with 14 consecutive wins. At this point, he still holds long positions in ETH, SOL, and HYPE worth $148 million, with an unrealized loss of $18.86 million, and only 8% space left before reaching the liquidation price.

The intraday market continues to decline. The whale is only 4% away from the liquidation price. His account balance has dropped by 40.4 million dollars from its peak, returning to pre-liberation levels with both principal and interest. As the liquidation price rapidly approaches, any rational trader should have stopped, but he has added positions of 2,196 ETH and 78,724 SOL at prices of 3,497 USD for ETH and 159 USD for SOL. The liquidation lines have been pushed higher, with the ETH liquidation price at 3,348 USD and the SOL liquidation price at 151.6 USD. ETH is only 130 USD away from liquidation, and SOL is only 8 USD away.

On November 5th, everything came to an end. He was forced to liquidate all positions around 5 AM, leaving only 1.4 million dollars in margin in the account, which was almost equivalent to a margin call liquidation. Thus, this 21-day trading journey ended in complete loss. The profits of 15.83 million earned from 14 consecutive wins and the 28.76 million principal amounted to a total of 44.67 million dollars, all wiped out in one loss.

Between Leverage and Human Nature

In the trading records of Hyperliquid, almost every legend ends in a similar way: James Wynn once held a long position of 1.2 billion USD in BTC with 20x leverage, peaking at a profit of 87 million, but ultimately losing 21.77 million; qwatio rolled over 3 million in capital infinitely, at one point earning 26 million, only to end up at zero; veteran trader AguilaTrades had a maximum profit of 41.7 million from a capital of 300,000, ultimately losing 37.6 million. And this anonymous whale, famous for his “14 consecutive wins,” also turned 44.67 million USD to nothing in just one night.

Winning streaks can rely on skill and luck, but survival always depends on restraint. When everyone is engrossed in the upward curve, the ending is often already written beneath the leverage.