Bitcoin fluctuates around 100,000 USD: The tug-of-war between whales and retail investors

Bitcoin (BTC) has recently bounced back from the zone of 100,000 USD, igniting hopes for a bullish reversal. However, traders remain cautious, as this recovery may be just a “bull trap” – a temporary bullish trap – before the downtrend continues. The important resistance level at 105,000–106,000 USD is seen as a key factor in determining whether Bitcoin can maintain its upward momentum.

Early reversal signs after breaking back above 102,000 USD

According to technical analyst Lennaert Snyder, Bitcoin is showing initial signs of a potential bullish reversal. On the X platform, Snyder noted that BTC has bounced back from a recent bottom zone and reclaimed the 102,000 USD mark – a sign that buying pressure is starting to return. This development comes after a prolonged period of weakness, indicating that the market is trying to stabilize before forming its next major move.

Snyder emphasized that maintaining the current momentum and establishing a higher low around 101,400 USD will be a crucial factor in confirming a sustainable bullish scenario. Conversely, if this support zone cannot be defended, selling pressure may re-emerge – reflecting that market sentiment still leans towards bearish.

Source: Lennaert Snyder/XIn the short term, he mentioned that he is monitoring lower time frames to find “scalp long” trading opportunities around the zone of 101,400 USD, aiming to take advantage of short fluctuations before clearer signals about the overall trend emerge. The nearest resistance level at 104,700 USD will be the “gateway” for the next bullish move. If successfully broken, BTC could extend its gains to the zone of 107,500 USD, signaling that the bulls regain control. However, Snyder also warns of the risk of strong volatility or fake breakouts, especially on weekends when market liquidity tends to decrease.

Bull Trap Warning Around the 105,000 USD Mark

From another perspective, market expert Ted Pillows noted that the recent bounce back could be a potential “bull trap”. Although the price quickly rebounded after briefly dipping below 100,000 USD, the underlying momentum remains weak, indicating that the bears have not completely lost control.

According to him, only when Bitcoin decisively crosses the zone of 105,000–106,000 USD will the downtrend truly be invalidated. If it fails, the market may continue to return to test lower support zones – even around 93,394 USD – causing the short-term outlook to remain tilted towards a fall.

Source: Ted Pillows/X## The pressure from whales is still weighing down the BTC price.

On-chain data shows that, although it still maintains a slight positive trend compared to the beginning of the year, Bitcoin is currently entering a consolidation phase – a prolonged correction around the zone of 100,000 USD in 2025.

One of the reasons for the weakening upward momentum comes from the fact that the “sleeping” coins have returned to circulation. According to data from Glassnode, the large investor group ( whales ) are the main selling force, creating significant downward pressure on prices.

The Accumulation Trend Score (ATS) indicator from Glassnode – a tool for measuring the degree of accumulation or distribution of wallet groups based on the size and amount of BTC purchased in the last 15 days – shows:

Source: GlassnodeSince August, wallets holding over 10,000 BTC have continuously sold off, marking three months of sustained distribution. Meanwhile, the 1,000–10,000 BTC wallet group maintains a neutral stance around the 0.5 mark, while smaller investors under 1,000 BTC are seizing the opportunity to buy in.

Earlier, in the first four months of the year, all wallet groups were in a strong distribution state, contributing to a 30% drop in the price of Bitcoin, reaching 76,000 USD during the “capitulation” event in April.

Large gap between whales and the rest of the market

Current data shows a stark contrast: while small and medium investors quietly accumulate, the “whales” continue to dominate the selling pressure. This opposition puts the market in a state of stalemate — where just one breakout above the 106,000 USD threshold could trigger a new bullish wave, but conversely, a strong sell-off from large wallets could easily pull Bitcoin back to a deeper support zone.

Amid mixed signals from technical analysis and on-chain data, Bitcoin is entering an extremely sensitive phase — where every fluctuation around the 100,000 USD mark could become a turning point shaping the trend for the remainder of 2025.

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