4E: Bitcoin erases its annual rise, correlation surges while capital withdrawal resonates to suppress the market.

Mars Finance reports that against the backdrop of an intensified crypto Bear Market and a cooling risk appetite, all gains in Bitcoin since the end of last year have been completely wiped out. Early Monday morning, BTC fell below $93,600, dipping below the opening price at the beginning of the year. Bitwise CIO Matthew Hougan pointed out that major buyers—including ETF allocators and institutional debt allocators—have been continuously withdrawing over the past month, causing the fund outflow effect that originally supported BTC's all-time highs to begin to show. In 41 days, the total market capitalization of the crypto market evaporated by $1.1 trillion, and while the current liquidation scale is about 10% lower than the peak on October 10, risk sentiment remains fragile. At the same time, the correlation between Bitcoin and U.S. tech stocks has rapidly risen. Data from Kobeissi Letter shows that the 30-day correlation between BTC and the NASDAQ 100 has risen to 0.80, reaching a new high since 2022, with a five-year correlation also reaching 0.54. Bitcoin is behaving more like a “high beta tech stock” rather than an independent macro hedging asset. Amidst the pressure on sentiment, external structural changes are also worth noting. The global ETF issuance reached 137 new funds in October, with 15 new cryptocurrency ETFs added, more than double that of September. The total global ETF issuance this year has reached 918, and it is expected to exceed 1,100 for the year, setting a new historical high. In terms of market views, BitMine Chairman Tom Lee emphasized that although BTC has experienced multiple rounds of declines, it is still in a Supercycle level over the past decade, and he believes Ethereum is following a similar path. Arete Capital partner McKenna pointed out that BTC has a maximum short-term decline risk of 31%, with key support at the $96,200, $93,300, and $86,000–$91,000 range. He predicts that it may be difficult to reach new highs within 2025, but under the influence of institutional accumulation and ETF funds, Bitcoin is expected to break $200,000 before Trump’s term ends. 4E reminds investors: The market is currently under “triple pressure” from macro hedging, fund withdrawal, and heightened correlation with tech stocks. The medium to long-term logic of BTC remains unchanged, but short-term fluctuations may continue to amplify, requiring attention to fund flows, changes in correlation, and the stability of key support areas.