When the market is in extreme fear, who is buying the dip against the trend?

Author: Hotcoin Research

Cryptocurrency market performance

Currently, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies is $3.09 trillion, with BTC accounting for 58.5%, which is $1.8 trillion. The market capitalization of stablecoins is $306.1 billion, having increased by 1.08% in the last 7 days. The number of stablecoins reversed this week and began to show positive growth, with the main growing company being Circle, where USDT accounts for 60.31%.

Among the top 200 projects on CoinMarketCap, most have fallen while a few have risen, including: BTC with a 7-day decline of 0.78%, SOL with a 7-day decline of 2.23%, SAHARA with a 7-day decline of 12.05%, AIOZ with a 7-day decline of 8.09%, and PI with a 7-day decline of 7.85%. After experiencing a downturn, the crypto world has begun to recover, but the situation has not yet improved significantly.

This week, the net inflow for Bitcoin spot ETFs in the U.S. was $70.5 million; the net inflow for Ethereum spot ETFs in the U.S. was $312 million.

Market Forecast (December 1 - December 7):

The current RSI index is 48.71 (neutral range), the Fear and Greed index is 27 (the index is higher than last week, generally in the fear range), and the Altseason index is 37 (neutral, higher than last week).

BTC core range: $85,000-95,000

ETH core range: $2,800-3,300

SOL Core Range: $126-156

Market sentiment: The market has emerged from the “extreme panic” phase and is beginning to recover slowly. However, due to the four-year cycle theory and large whale sell-offs, prices have not achieved a V-shaped reversal. Bitmine continues to accumulate ETH, and this week, U.S. spot ETFs are showing net inflows. “Cathie Wood” is bottom-fishing for crypto-related stocks like Coinbase and Circle. The current focus is on the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting on December 10. The market has high expectations for a rate cut, which usually indicates improved liquidity and could boost risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. Conversely, if expectations are not met, it may trigger market volatility. Currently, the probability of a rate cut in December is 82.8%. Ethereum is expected to undergo the Fusaka upgrade on December 4. After the Upbit theft incident in South Korea, SOL's price has come under pressure, but recent net inflows into U.S. spot ETFs have also provided some support for the price.

For conservative investors: When the market is in the “extreme fear” zone, it is often the right time for medium to long-term positioning. You may consider making small, incremental purchases near key support levels to lower your average cost, and there's no need to rush into a heavy investment all at once.

For active traders: In the current volatile market, consider taking a light long position near support levels and reducing positions or considering shorting near resistance levels. Always set stop losses for all trades.

Understand now

Review of the week's major events

1. On November 24, Citic Securities' research report stated that New York Fed President Williams hinted at further rate cuts in December, reversing market expectations for a rate cut, with the market currently believing there is a 70% chance the Fed will cut rates in December. The Fed will enter its blackout period starting November 29, and there are no scheduled public appearances or media interviews for Powell before the blackout period, meaning Williams' comments could be the last remarks from a Fed official to influence market expectations.

2. On November 24, according to market data, U.S. stocks rose at the opening, with the Nasdaq up over 1.5% and the S&P 500 index increasing by 1%, while cryptocurrency stocks generally rose.

3. On November 25, the White House is trying to accelerate the enhancement of America's scientific research capabilities through the application of artificial intelligence. President Trump signed an executive order on Monday to launch the “Genesis Mission” program, which requires the Department of Energy and other research institutions to actively promote the deployment of artificial intelligence. Michael Kratsios, director of the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy, called it “the largest integration of federal research resources since the Apollo program”;

4. On November 25, JPMorgan Chase, a large American bank, closed the personal account of Strike CEO Jack Mallers, raising renewed concerns in the U.S. crypto industry about the wave of “debanking.”

5. On November 26, according to The Block, Ark Invest, led by Cathie Wood, continued to increase its holdings in crypto-related stocks such as Block, Circle, and Coinbase this Tuesday amid falling cryptocurrency prices and a sluggish overall cryptocurrency market.

6. On November 27, last night and this morning, the mainstream cryptocurrencies in the crypto market showed a significant rebound. According to HTX market information, Bitcoin returned to $90,000 after a week, currently quoted at $90,355, with a 24-hour increase of 3.83%;

7. On November 27, Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino responded to S&P's latest rating of Tether by stating, “We take pride in being hated by you.” Paolo Ardoino pointed out that the traditional rating system has long led investors towards ultimately collapsing “investment-grade” institutions, raising doubts about the independence of rating agencies among global regulators. He stated that the traditional financial system is unwilling to see any company escape its “failing gravity,” but Tether has created the industry's first over-capitalized, toxic asset-free, and consistently highly profitable company, proving that the fragility of the old system is causing discomfort among the “Emperor's New Clothes” rulers.

8. On November 27, according to DL News, South Korean financial regulators have urged Bithumb to suspend its Tether market services, which allow customers to buy and sell Bitcoin and nine high-market-cap altcoins using USDT; however, these 10 assets can continue to be traded on the KRW market.

On November 27, at 4:42 AM, South Korea's largest cryptocurrency exchange Upbit disclosed that it detected abnormal withdrawal behavior, with approximately 54 billion Korean won (about 36 million USD) in Solana network-related digital assets being transferred to an unknown external wallet address. Upbit will bear all customer losses;

On November 28, according to official news, YZi Labs Management Ltd. stated that as a significant shareholder of CEA Industries Inc. (NASDAQ: BNC), it has submitted a preliminary consent statement to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), seeking shareholder approval in writing to expand the size of the company's board of directors to add experienced and highly qualified directors.

Macroeconomics

1. For the week ending November 22, the number of initial unemployment claims in the United States was 216,000, compared to the expected 225,000.

2. On November 28, according to the Federal Reserve rate observer, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December is 82.8%.

ETF

According to statistics, from November 24 to November 28, the net inflow of Bitcoin spot ETFs in the U.S. was $70.5 million; as of November 28, GBTC (Grayscale) had a total outflow of $24.971 billion, currently holding $15.21 billion, while IBIT (BlackRock) currently holds $70.611 billion. The total market value of Bitcoin spot ETFs in the U.S. is $119.682 billion.

Net inflow of Ethereum spot ETF in the US: $312 million.

Envision the future

Event Announcement

1. Bitcoin MENA will be held from December 8 to 9 at the Abu Dhabi National Exhibition Center (ADNEC);

2. Solana Breakpoint 2025 will be held in Abu Dhabi from December 11 to 13.

Project Progress

1. The Aster Stage 3 airdrop checker will open on December 1, 2025, and the airdrop claiming will begin on December 15;

2. The fourth round of FTX compensation is expected to start in January 2026, with the deadline for eligibility confirmation possibly being in December;

3. The Spanish Ministry of Economic Affairs and Digital Transformation announced that the European Union's Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA) will be implemented at the national level in December 2025. The deadline for all 27 EU member states to implement MiCA is July 2026;

4. US-listed company Sonnet BioTherapeutics has postponed its merger vote to December 2nd, planning to merge with Rorschach I LLC to form Hyperliquid Strategies and advance the HYPE reserve strategy;

5. The AZTEC token sale plan of Aztec will be held from December 2 to 6, 2025, supported by Uniswap's newly launched Continuous Clearing Auction protocol (CCA). CCA is a customizable protocol designed to launch liquidity and issue tokens on Uniswap v4. The protocol is designed in collaboration with Aztec, which provides a ZK Passport module for private and verifiable participation. The starting price for this sale is set at $350 million fully diluted valuation (FDV), which is approximately 75% lower than the implied network valuation based on the latest equity financing.

Important events

1. On December 3rd, the United States will announce the November ADP employment figure of ( million );

2. On December 4th, the United States will announce the number of initial jobless claims for the week ending November 29th: ( million );

3. On December 5th, the United States will announce the year-on-year core PCE price index for September.

Token Unlock

1. Audiera (BEAT) ** will unlock 21.25 million tokens on December 1, worth approximately 20.26 million USD, accounting for 2.12% of the circulating supply;

2. Lagrange (LA) ** will unlock 12.7 million tokens on December 4, worth approximately $5 million, accounting for 1.27% of the circulating supply;

3. MYX Finance (MYX) **Unlocking 30.37 million tokens on December 6, worth approximately $77.5 million, accounting for 3.04% of the circulating supply;

4. Jito (JTO) ** will unlock 11.31 million tokens on December 7, worth approximately $5.47 million, accounting for 1.13% of the circulating supply.

About Us

Hotcoin Research, as the core research institution of the Hotcoin exchange, is dedicated to transforming professional analysis into your practical tool. Through “Weekly Insights” and “In-Depth Reports,” we analyze market trends for you; leveraging our exclusive column “Hotcoin Selection” (a dual screening by AI and experts), we identify potential assets and reduce trial-and-error costs. Each week, our researchers will also live stream and interact with you face-to-face, interpreting hotspots and predicting trends. We believe that warm companionship and professional guidance can help more investors navigate cycles and seize the value opportunities of Web3.