Last Cycle's Crypto Signal King Murad: 116 Reasons Why the Bull Market Will Arrive in 2026

Murad shared 116 bullish reasons, data analyses, and on-chain signals, arguing that the cryptocurrency bull market could last until 2026. He believes this cycle will break the previous 4-year pattern, last longer, and Bitcoin could reach $150,000 to $200,000. This article is sourced from the MustStopMurad podcast and was organized, translated, and written by TechFlow.

(Prior summary: Bernstein: A 25% Bitcoin retracement does not mean the bull market has peaked; fundamentals remain unchanged, this looks more like a staged correction.) (Background: The most comprehensive data indicator analysis: Bitcoin falls below the $100,000 key level, is the bull market really over?)

Guest: Murad
Podcast source: MustStopMurad
Original title: 116 Reasons why Crypto BULL MARKET is NOT OVER
Broadcast date: November 27, 2025

Key Points Summary
Remember Murad, the king of calls from the last cycle? The one who proposed the meme supercycle theory?
Now he’s back again.
In this podcast episode, Murad shared 116 bullish reasons, data analyses, and on-chain signals, all indicating that the crypto market bull run may last until 2026.
Murad believes this cycle may break the usual four-year pattern and last even longer.

Highlights

• Bitcoin may go parabolic in the future, reaching highs of $150,000 to $200,000.
• ETF holders have extremely strong long-term confidence in Bitcoin.
• The Bitcoin bull market is not over and will last until 2026.
• The stablecoin market is in a supercycle.
• Most recent selling came from traders and short-term holders.
• Disagrees with the view that market cycles are only four years; this cycle may extend to four and a half or even five years, possibly lasting until 2026.
• Liquidations on the (short side) are significantly higher than on the (long side); there are more short positions than long ones.
• Of the 30 traditional Bitcoin cycle top signals, not a single one has been triggered, meaning the market has not yet reached the top region.
• The 2025 market trend, including current price volatility, may just be a consolidation phase laying the foundation for the next rally.
• The maximum pain points for Bitcoin options in late November and December are at $102,000 and $99,000 respectively, much higher than current market prices.
• Bitcoin price bottomed near the ETF cost basis range (about $79,000 to $82,000), which also aligns with the realized price for ETFs.
• In addition, $80,200 (slightly below the recent low) is considered the actual market average price for Bitcoin. Multiple price indicators overlap in the $79,000 to $83,000 range, including ETF cost basis, realized price, and market average price. Such price convergence is usually seen as a support area.
• Further analysis of Bitcoin’s realized price distribution shows that the $83,000 to $85,000 range is also a key support/resistance flip zone.

Podcast Content

Analysis of the Recent BTC Crash
First question to answer: Why did Bitcoin (BTC) plunge from $125,000 to $80,000?
First, investors who subscribe to the four-year cycle theory engaged in heavy selling, which intensified downward pressure. At the same time, the prolonged US government shutdown exceeded market expectations, further increasing macroeconomic uncertainty. Due to the shutdown, repo markets faced funding pressure, and minor stock market declines also negatively impacted BTC prices.
Additionally, some smaller digital reserve companies and early Bitcoin holders sold due to contagion effects. To a lesser extent, some so-called BTC whales expressed dissatisfaction with the latest BTC core updates and engaged in “protest selling.” Combined, these factors led to an atypical rapid six-week BTC price drop from $125,000 to $80,000.

Nevertheless, I will use 116 reasons and charts to demonstrate that the Bitcoin bull market is not over and is expected to last until 2026.

116 Reasons Supporting BTC Bull Market Until 2026

Technical Analysis & Price Structure (TA)
The recent 36% drop is not something we’ve never seen before. If you look at all the pullbacks in this cycle, this one is the fastest, sharpest, and largest. But we saw a 32% pullback at the start of 2025, and a 33% one in mid-2024. These are roughly comparable to the current 36% pullback. So, relative to what we’ve seen so far this cycle, this isn’t abnormal.

The 3-day chart showed a bullish hammer (Bullish Hammer), which is typically a reversal pattern. We need to wait to see if a bottom can be established here in the next two to three weeks, but this specific 3-day candlestick pattern is bullish.

We are still in a pattern of consecutive higher lows (Higher Low). From a higher timeframe perspective, assuming this $80,005 low is a local low, BTC is technically still making higher lows.

BTC just tested the two-week demand zone; we are essentially at support.

On the monthly timeframe, we are in a long-term ascending parallel channel. This channel began in 2023 and we are still at the diagonal support, which is essentially a bullish structure. This is a slow and steady bull market cycle, and this structure remains intact.

On an even longer timeframe, there’s a logarithmic ascending parallel channel with diagonal support dating back to 2013. That structure is still technically intact; we just tested the lower bound.

There’s another diagonal line that served as resistance in early 2021, late 2021, and early 2024. We broke above it at the end of 2024, tested it as support at the start of 2025, and are now testing it as support again, which may just be another confirmation of resistance turning into support.

Momentum and Oversold Indicators
The weekly RSI hasn’t been this low since the FDX crash. The only previous times the weekly RSI was this low were the 2018 bear market bottom, the COVID bottom, and the 3AC/Luna crash in mid-2022. We’re currently at roughly the same level as during COVID, but this is basically the lowest weekly RSI since 2023. If you match these weekly RSI levels to the chart, you’ll find this typically coincides with late-stage bear market bottoms or sharp drops like the COVID crash.

The daily RSI is at its lowest in two and a half years; the last time it was this low was in summer 2023. Statistics show that when BTC’s daily RSI drops below 21, future expected returns look favorable.

Another indicator is the distance from the power law (Power Law), which is currently at a “buy zone” level.

If you connect all the pullback lows from this cycle, you’ll find…