JPMorgan predicts Bitcoin could surge to $170,000 within a year, but warns that if Strategy loses its mNAV or is removed from the MSCI index, it could impact short-term gains.
(Previous context: BlackRock CEO publicly admits mistake: Bitcoin is not just for crime, it is a highly volatile “fear asset.”)
(Background: Crypto ETF funds see rapid outflows—can issuers like BlackRock still profit?)
Bitcoin (Bitcoin) surged past $94,000 yesterday and is currently fluctuating around $92,000, with neither bulls nor bears clearly dominating. However, JPMorgan recently released a report raising its 6- to 12-month Bitcoin target price to $170,000, predicting an upside of over 80% from current levels.
Analysts at the firm believe that macro hedging demand will ultimately drive prices higher, but caution that short-term momentum depends on the liquidity of major holders.
Strategy’s financial pressure is a variable
JPMorgan’s report specifically highlights the financial condition of MicroStrategy (Strategy) as a key factor influencing Bitcoin’s short-term performance. Analysts calculate Strategy’s current mNAV at about 1.1, just above the 1.0 warning threshold. If it falls below that level, it means the company’s market cap is less than the value of its Bitcoin holdings, potentially prompting creditors or investors to demand cash back, forcing the company to sell holdings and possibly triggering a chain reaction of selling in the market.
To maintain its HODL stance, Strategy has already raised about $1.44 billion in cash through share sales. The company claims this will cover interest and dividends for the next two years, and it has extended debt maturities through perpetual preferred shares and convertible bonds.
However, its 2025 profit forecast has been sharply revised from $24 billion to a loss of $5.5 billion to a profit of $6.3 billion, and there is a risk it could be removed from the MSCI index, further suppressing its share price and worsening mNAV. (MSCI will decide in January next year whether to exclude companies that invest 50% or more of their assets in digital assets from its indexes.)
Further reading: Michael Saylor responds to “MicroStrategy may be removed from MSCI index”: Our Bitcoin business is unique, index classification cannot define us
Top 10 tokens also fluctuate
Other top ten tokens are also following Bitcoin’s trend. Ethereum fell from $3,200, and the biggest drop in the past 24 hours was XRP, now at $2.1.
Related reports:
BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF becomes BlackRock’s most profitable fund, earning $245 million in fees in one year
Texas spends $5 million to buy BlackRock’s IBIT: After DAT fizzles out, can SBR reignite the Bitcoin bull market?
Former BlackRock executive: Ethereum has become Wall Street’s infrastructure; in the future, finance will no longer distinguish between DeFi and traditional finance
〈JPMorgan predicts Bitcoin could reach $170,000 next year, short-term focus on MicroStrategy’s mNAV and the 1.0 red line〉This article was first published on BlockTempo, the most influential blockchain news media.
Disclaimer: The information on this page may come from third parties and does not represent the views or opinions of Gate. The content displayed on this page is for reference only and does not constitute any financial, investment, or legal advice. Gate does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information and shall not be liable for any losses arising from the use of this information. Virtual asset investments carry high risks and are subject to significant price volatility. You may lose all of your invested principal. Please fully understand the relevant risks and make prudent decisions based on your own financial situation and risk tolerance. For details, please refer to
Disclaimer.
Related Articles
HBAR Faces Renewed Pressure as $0.09 Support Weakens
Key Insights:
HBAR price repeatedly failed to clear value area high resistance, reinforcing overhead supply and weakening bullish momentum within the current range structure.
The $0.09 high timeframe support now defines short term direction as price rotates lower inside a clearly
CryptoFrontNews16m ago
Culper Research shorted Ethereum, citing the upgrade as the trigger for a death spiral
Culper Research report indicates that Ethereum's Fusaka upgrade caused excess block space, leading to a 90% drop in transaction fees, potentially entering a "death spiral" cycle, resulting in decreased staking demand and network security. The report mentions Vitalik Buterin selling large amounts of ETH, questioning Tom Lee's bullish outlook, and points out BitMine's loss risks held in Ethereum.
MarketWhisper28m ago
Pi Network Today's News: $0.20 Becomes the Bull-Bear Threshold, Token Unlock Adds Variables
Pi Network (PI) tokens recently surged in price, breaking through $0.1900, with a total increase of about 15%. Market sentiment has improved, and the fear index has risen back to 29. However, 20.8 million PI tokens will be unlocked on Saturday, which could increase selling pressure and pose a short-term risk to the price. If it can break through $0.1959, the target price is $0.2613; but a drop below the 50-day moving average could turn the trend bearish.
MarketWhisper39m ago
Glassnode: Bitcoin selling pressure has eased, but institutional demand remains in the testing phase
PANews March 6 News, Glassnode posted on X platform analyzing that the outflow trend of Bitcoin spot ETF funds has stabilized. The 14-day net flow trend has turned upward, indicating that as Bitcoin breaks through $70,000, selling pressure is easing. Institutional demand remains in a tentative stage, but early signs of reaccumulation are beginning to appear.
GateNews45m ago
XRP Today's News: Musk X Money Beta Released, Sparks On-Chain Integration Speculation
Elon Musk's X company has launched a beta version of the X Money payment system, allowing users to transfer and manage funds, sparking widespread discussion about XRP integration. Although there are no official plans for cryptocurrency integration at the moment, the market is generally optimistic. Analysts believe that XRP has design advantages for payments, especially with improved regulatory environments, making it more promising. However, the practicality of stablecoins is also under scrutiny. XRP is currently testing the $1.50 technical resistance level. If successfully broken through, it could trigger further gains.
MarketWhisper46m ago
ETH short-term upward movement of 0.99%: Driven by whale inflows and external capital transfers, a structural rebound
From 01:30 to 01:45 (UTC) on March 6, 2026, ETH achieved a return of +0.99% within 15 minutes, with a price range of 2065.42 to 2088.57 USDT, and an amplitude of 1.12%. The volatility during this window was significantly higher than the daily average, increasing short-term market attention. Liquidity was relatively low, and some large transactions drove the trading volume upward.
The main driver of this abnormal movement was the concentrated inflow of whale funds into decentralized exchanges and large transfers. On-chain monitoring detected multiple large ETH fund inflows into DeFi protocols and trading platforms, effectively pushing
GateNews1h ago
