$150,000 Bitcoin is Not a Dream! Bernstein Declares the "Four-Year Cycle" is Dead

Global research and brokerage firm Bernstein, which manages over $790 billion in assets, has announced that the traditional four-year cryptocurrency cycle has ended. The firm has raised its 2026 Bitcoin price target to $150,000, projects a potential cycle peak of $200,000 in 2027, and has set a long-term target of $1 million by 2033. Analysts describe this as a “long-term bull market,” with the core logic being that institutional buying has created an entirely new market structure.

Institutional Buying Rewrites Bitcoin’s Rules of the Game

(Source: Sovryn)

Matthew Sigel, Head of Digital Assets Research at VanEck, cited Bernstein’s viewpoint, noting that after the recent market correction, “the Bitcoin cycle has broken its four-year pattern and is now in a longer bull market cycle, with more persistent institutional buying offsetting any panic selling by retail investors.” The supporting data for this conclusion is highly convincing. Although Bitcoin has dropped about 30% since early October, ETF outflows have only been around 5%, clearly highlighting the stark contrast between institutional investor confidence and retail behavior.

The traditional four-year cycle is rooted in Bitcoin’s halving mechanism, where mining rewards are halved every four years, supply shocks drive prices up, and a bear market correction follows. However, the entry of institutional investors has completely changed this logic. ETFs provide compliant channels, allowing pension funds, sovereign funds, and corporate treasury departments to steadily allocate to Bitcoin. This persistent buying is no longer driven by the halving cycle but by long-term asset allocation needs. Bernstein’s analysis shows that when institutional buying becomes the dominant force, market volatility decreases, bull market cycles lengthen, and the traditional four-year rhythm naturally becomes obsolete.

Fed Liquidity Injection as a Catalyst

Analysts David Brickell and Chris Mills from the London Crypto Club believe that the Fed’s liquidity injection on Wednesday could serve as a powerful catalyst, potentially driving Bitcoin “sharply higher.” They stated that the central bank is prepared to deliver a “dovish surprise.” They wrote, “As the Fed effectively turns on the printing press to monetize the deficit, we will enter a sustained rate-cutting cycle, and the balance sheet will also expand.”

This aligns perfectly with Bernstein’s $150,000 Bitcoin target from a macro narrative perspective. The M2 money supply has reached a record $22.3 trillion, and the reserve rebuild plan after the end of quantitative tightening may inject $35 billion in liquidity per month. Historical data shows that Bitcoin reacts more sensitively to liquidity cycles than to interest rate changes. After the Fed launched unlimited QE in March 2020, Bitcoin soared from $3,800 to $69,000, a direct result of excess liquidity. If liquidity continues to expand through 2026, the $150,000 target is entirely logical.

Technical Analysis Supports Long-Term Bull Market Thesis

(Source: Trading View)

The weekly chart shows Bitcoin holding the critical $78,000 support level, which separates deeper bear market declines from the continuation of the macro uptrend. Prices have recently dropped sharply but have stabilized near the 20-week moving average, while the 50-week moving average continues to slope upward, indicating that despite the pullback, the long-term trend remains intact. The RSI momentum has cooled to the mid-40s, reflecting that the market has retreated from overbought conditions but has not reached the extreme oversold levels seen at major cycle bottoms.

As long as Bitcoin stays around the $78,000 area, this structure suggests it is in a consolidation phase within a larger bull market cycle. A rebound above $102,000 would indicate a resumption of the uptrend, while a break through the $108,000 resistance zone would confirm the price is reaching new highs. From a risk-reward perspective, the current position offers a good entry opportunity. If Bernstein’s forecast is realized, moving from $90,000 to $150,000 represents 66% upside potential.

Bernstein’s revolutionary forecast is not just a numbers game but a recognition of a fundamental shift in Bitcoin’s market structure. As institutions become the dominant force and Bitcoin evolves from a speculative tool to an allocation asset, traditional cycles naturally break down, and a long-term bull market becomes the new normal.