Five charts will help you understand: Where has the market gone in every crypto policy storm?

The seven major financial associations in mainland China issued the latest risk warnings, naming virtual assets such as stablecoins, RWAs, and air coins. Through five key policy nodes, we analyze whether the crypto market will go silent or restart after regulatory implementation. This article is derived from the article written by Biteye and is compiled, compiled and written by Foresight News. (Summary: When China’s crypto tycoons began to sweep gold, you should have woken up a long time ago: the market has changed) (Background supplement: China’s official statement on stablecoins for the first time, the gray fantasy era of StableCoin is over) After this regulatory hammer, is it a precursor to the impending decline, or is it the starting point of another “bearish”? Let’s go through five key policy nodes to understand the trajectory after the storm. Recently, the seven major financial associations in the mainland issued the latest risk warnings, naming various virtual assets such as stablecoins, RWAs, and air coins. Although there has been no significant change in Bitcoin at present, the recent cold market sentiment, account shrinkage, and USDT over-the-counter discount are reminiscent of the scene of the past few rounds of policy tightening. From 2013 to the present, the mainland’s supervision of the crypto field has gone through twelve years. Policies have been made again and again, and the market has responded again and again. This article wants to follow the timeline and review the market reaction at these key nodes, and also clarify a question: After the implementation of regulation, will the crypto market go silent, or will it accumulate strength to start again? 2013: Bitcoin is defined as a “virtual commodity” On December 5, 2013, the People’s Bank of China and other five ministries and commissions jointly issued the “Notice on Preventing Bitcoin Risks”, clarifying for the first time that Bitcoin, as a “specific virtual commodity”, does not have legal compensation and is not a currency. At the same time, banks and payment institutions are prohibited from providing services for Bitcoin transactions. The timing of this notice is also delicate, just after Bitcoin hit an all-time high of around $1,130 at the end of November. In early December, the price of Bitcoin was still fluctuating between $900–$1,000, but a few days after the policy was implemented, the market began to cool down rapidly. Throughout December, Bitcoin closed at around $755, marking a monthly drop of nearly 30%. In the following months, Bitcoin fell into a long downward range, with prices basically at $400–600, and this round fell back from the highs, basically announcing the end of the 2013 bull market. After that, the price of Bitcoin continued to be below $400 until the end of 2015. The first round of supervision extinguished the flame of early fanaticism and kicked off the “policy and market” game. 2017: ICO bans and exchange “migration” 2017 was a year of extreme hustle and bustle for the crypto market, and it was also the year of the most decisive regulation. On September 4, seven ministries and commissions issued the “Announcement on Preventing Token Issuance Financing Risks”, characterizing ICOs as illegal financing and requiring the complete shutdown of domestic exchanges, with Bitcoin closing around $4,300 on the same day. However, a week after the policy announcement, BTC fell to $3,000 at one point. However, although this round of supervision cut off the dominance of mainland exchanges in the short term, it failed to shake the foundation of the global bull market. As trading activities rapidly moved out of Singapore, Japan, South Korea and other places, Bitcoin ushered in an accelerated rebound after completing the phased clearance, starting to rise all the way in October, and three months later, in December 2017, the closing price of Bitcoin has soared to $19,665. The second round of regulation brought a short-term shock, but it also invisibly promoted the spread of globalization. 2019: Local precise rectification Since November 2019, Beijing, Shanghai, Guangdong and other places have successively investigated virtual currency-related activities, and the supervision method has shifted to “local precise rectification”, and the intensity has not been relaxed. Bitcoin fell from over $9,000 at the beginning of the month to around $7,700 that month, and market sentiment was subdued for a while. And the real trend turning point occurred in the following year. In 2020, Bitcoin, driven by halving expectations and global liquidity easing, walked out of the bull market warm-up from $7,000 to $20,000+, and successfully connected to the epic bull market of 2020–2021. The third round of supervision clears the path for the next stage of upward movement in a sense. 2021: Complete lockdown, power outage at mines In 2021, regulatory intensity reached its peak. The year saw two landmark events that completely reshaped the fabric of the global crypto market. In mid-May, the Financial Commission of the State Council clearly proposed to “crack down on Bitcoin mining and trading.” Subsequently, major mining provinces such as Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang, and Sichuan successively introduced clearance policies, forming a nationwide “wave of mining machine power outages”. On September 24, the central bank and ten other ministries and commissions jointly issued the “Notice on Further Preventing and Disposing of Virtual Currency Trading Speculation Risks”, officially clarifying that all virtual currency-related activities are illegal financial activities. Bitcoin fell from $50,000 to $35,000 in the month of May. Entering June–July, BTC traded sideways in the $30,000–$40,000 range, and market sentiment hit rock bottom, before Bitcoin bottomed out in August, continuing to rise driven by optimistic expectations of global liquidity, and finally hitting an all-time high near $68,000 in November. In the fourth round of regulation, policies can draw boundaries, but they cannot stop the global redistribution of computing power and capital. 2025: The Anticipated Reversal – From “Innovative Temptation” to “Full Tightening” The regulatory narrative of 2025 is full of dramatic twists. In the first half of the year, a series of signals made the market smell of “melting ice”, and a cautious optimism permeated the circle: whether it was the discussion of the stablecoin issuance framework in Hong Kong to the “Malu Grapes” on the outskirts of Shanghai, the market began to discuss the possibility of “compliance path” and “China model”. The wind direction changed abruptly at the end of the year. On December 5, the seven major financial associations jointly issued a risk warning, and the core message is very clear: make it clear that virtual currency is not legal tender Call to crack down on popular concepts such as air coins, stablecoins, and RWA Not only domestic transactions are prohibited, but also publicity and diversion are prohibited, and supervision has begun to become more detailed The core upgrade of this risk warning is that it not only reaffirms the illegality of virtual currency transactions, but also spreads to the most popular segments (stablecoins, RWA) and promotion behaviors for the first time. So how will the market go this time? Unlike in the past, Chinese funds are no longer market-led, and Wall Street ETFs and institutional holdings have become the new main force. It can be seen that USDT has a negative premium, indicating that many people are in a hurry to exchange for fiat currency and leave. Market Voices: KOL Perspectives Sorting Out Well-known media personality Wu said @colinwu From the executive level, we remind everyone to pay attention to the trends of CEXs. The real wind direction depends on whether the platform restricts domestic IP, KYC registration, and C2C functions. Comparing mainland China and Hong Kong, XHunt founder @defiteddy2020 believes that crypto policies reflect different market positioning and regulatory philosophies. @myanTokenGeek, co-founder of Solv Protocol, believes that this round of regulation may have two consequences: one is that users and projects are accelerating their overseas expansion, and the other is that underground gray channels are making a comeback. Lawyer Liu Honglin, founder of Shanghai Mankiw Law Firm @Honglin_lawyer added from a legal perspective that many RWA projects do…