Next week's macro outlook: Non-farm payrolls and CPI double risks approaching, is the dollar's "life and death line" already flashing red?

PANews December 13 News, despite the Federal Reserve’s rate cut as scheduled this week and the release of dovish signals beyond expectations, the real challenges faced by the artificial intelligence sector have led to a complex divergence in the trends of the US stock and bond markets. The upcoming reports from the US Department of Labor on non-farm employment, consumer inflation, and retail sales will be released next week, potentially providing deeper insights into the economic health. Here are the key points the market will focus on in the new week: Monday 21:30, US December New York Fed Manufacturing Index; Monday 22:30, Federal Reserve Governor Mester speech; Monday 23:30, FOMC permanent voting member and New York Fed President Williams on economic outlook; Tuesday 21:30, US November Unemployment Rate, US November Non-Farm Payrolls (seasonally adjusted), US October Retail Sales MoM; Wednesday 22:05, FOMC permanent voting member and New York Fed President Williams opening speech at the 2025 Forex Market Structure Conference hosted by the New York Fed; Thursday 01:30, 2027 FOMC voting member and Atlanta Fed President Bostic speech on economic outlook; Thursday 21:30, US November Unadjusted CPI Year-over-Year / Core CPI Year-over-Year, US November Seasonally Adjusted CPI MoM / Core CPI MoM; US initial unemployment claims for the week ending December 13; US December Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index. Next week’s US CPI data release will be a critical turning point for the dollar’s movement. If the CPI data is below expectations (currently the latest figure is 3%, still above the Fed’s 2% target), it will further confirm the reasonableness of the Fed’s rate cut cycle, and the dollar may face further downward pressure; otherwise, the trend could reverse.