Behind the Weak TON Price: Is Telegram's Computing Power Network Cocoon the Cure or a New Narrative?

In the past 24 hours, TON’s price has decreased by 3.4% to $1.5567, significantly underperforming the broader crypto market which declined by 1.8% during the same period. This decline was accompanied by above-average trading volume, indicating active rebalancing by investors and market sentiment filled with uncertainty. Notably, recent developments in the TON ecosystem have been frequent: its affiliated publicly listed company AlphaTON submitted a financing application exceeding $420 million, and Telegram founder Pavel Durov also launched the privacy computing network Cocoon based on TON with high profile. The short-term price weakness, contrasted with the intense long-term ecosystem narrative, constitutes the core contradiction in the current TON market.

Why is TON’s price weak and underperforming the crypto market?

Against the backdrop of a broad market correction, TON’s performance is particularly noteworthy. According to market data, the token fell 3.4% in 24 hours, dropping to $1.5567. In comparison, the CoinDesk 20 index, which measures overall market performance, declined by about 1.8% during the same period, meaning TON’s relative performance lagged nearly twice as much. This persistent weakness is not accidental; it points to specific selling pressure targeting TON itself.

Market analysis suggests that this underperformance partly stems from portfolio rebalancing at year-end. When overall risk appetite slightly contracts, assets that previously surged or whose narratives have cooled tend to be the first to be sold off. After experiencing gains driven by positive news in the Telegram ecosystem, some profit-taking was observed as uncertainty increased. Chart analysis shows that although TON attempted several rebounds during the session, it failed to break through effectively, instead forming a pattern of lower lows, indicating that bearish forces still dominate the short-term trend.

More critically, intra-day volatility was intense, with a range from a high of $1.6144 to a low of $1.5449, a fluctuation of 4.3%. Such wide swings usually imply significant disagreement between bulls and bears, with neither side gaining full control. Meanwhile, trading volume exceeded 640,000 TON, well above the daily average, confirming that capital is actively competing and rotating in this asset.

Contradictory technical signals: what is the market waiting for?

From a technical perspective, TON’s current chart presents a contradictory picture. On one hand, the price found initial support near $1.5449 and briefly rebounded to around $1.58, suggesting some buyers are attempting to step in at this level. This buying activity may be related to long-term investors viewing the pullback as an opportunity to add positions, or large players testing the waters.

On the other hand, any rebound has been weak and short-lived, with prices quickly retreating again. This “support but no sustained bounce” pattern is typical of market hesitation. It indicates that, although the price may attract bottom-fishers at certain levels, more outside capital remains on the sidelines, unwilling to enter aggressively and push prices higher at this moment. Market doubts may center on: how long will the recent ecosystem positive news take to translate into fundamentals such as network usage and fee income?

Key Data on recent market performance of TON

Latest price: $1.5567

24-hour change: -3.4%

Compared to market index: lagging CoinDesk 20 by about 1.6 percentage points

Intraday amplitude: 4.3% (high of $1.6144, low of $1.5449)

24-hour trading volume: over 640,000 TON

Key support level: around $1.5449

For traders, the key focus now is whether the support at $1.5449 can hold. If this level is broken convincingly and cannot be quickly recovered, it could trigger a new wave of technical selling, pushing the price lower to find stronger support. Conversely, if a solid bottom can be established near this level with moderate volume increase, it may indicate the market is digesting short-term negative factors and preparing for a rebound. Until a clear direction emerges, most technical investors may choose to stay on the sidelines.

Ecosystem positive news: AlphaTON fundraising and Cocoon network launch—two sides of the coin

Contrasting sharply with the weak price trend are recent positive developments in the TON ecosystem. This highlights the biggest market divergence: why are fundamentals strong while prices move counter to that? First, AlphaTON Capital Corp, a publicly listed reserve company for the TON token on Nasdaq, recently filed a shelf registration for up to $420.69 million. The company plans to use the funds to support expansion of AI and high-performance computing infrastructure, aiming to provide computing power for Telegram’s Cocoon AI network and to facilitate acquisitions within the TON ecosystem.

Almost simultaneously, Telegram founder Pavel Durov announced the official launch of Cocoon, a decentralized privacy computing network. The network allows users to contribute GPU computing power to perform AI inference tasks and earn TON as rewards. This is widely seen as a key move in TON’s “Web3 + AI” track, leveraging Telegram’s large user base and real demand to build a practical scenario and demand loop for TON.

However, market reactions are complex. Some believe AlphaTON’s large fundraising may raise concerns about equity dilution or future selling pressure. While Cocoon’s concept is grand, it is still in very early stages, with total locked value of only about 4,487 TON, and its success remains to be seen over time. More importantly, Durov explicitly stated that Cocoon “should not issue tokens,” which reinforces TON’s role as a foundational payment and incentive tool within its ecosystem but also somewhat tempers short-term speculative expectations for a new coin. These positive signals are long-term and substantive but require patience, conflicting with the crypto market’s tendency to chase short-term hot spots.

What is TON (The Open Network)?

To understand the current price dynamics, it’s essential to clarify what TON actually is. The Open Network, originally conceived by the Telegram team, is a fast, secure blockchain network designed to handle massive transaction volumes and serve billions of users. After legal setbacks, the project was taken over and continued by the community, maintaining close ecosystem ties with Telegram.

TON’s core vision is to become “Telegram’s blockchain layer,” seamlessly integrated to provide wallet, payment, and decentralized application services for hundreds of millions of Telegram users. Its tokenomics emphasize utility and governance, used for paying transaction fees, running smart contracts, staking to secure the network, and as a medium of exchange within the ecosystem. As Telegram continues to embed more functions—such as ad payments and channel tips—TON’s practical demand scenarios are rapidly expanding.

Actions of the listed reserve company: confidence signal or potential selling pressure?

AlphaTON Capital Corp’s fundraising activity offers another window into how institutional capital views TON. Similar to MicroStrategy, such publicly listed digital asset reserve companies hold large amounts of target assets (here, TON) to create value for shareholders. AlphaTON’s large financing application and clear statement that funds will be used to increase holdings of TON and invest in ecosystem projects strongly indicate optimism about TON’s long-term value.

However, market interpretation of such news is often two-sided. On the positive side, it shows that major institutional investors are willing to invest hundreds of millions of dollars in a compliant manner, supporting TON’s ecosystem development with strong financial backing. On the cautious side, such large-scale financing may ultimately require selling new shares in the open market, which could exert downward pressure on the price. Moreover, the use of funds to buy TON could be seen as demand, but markets may also worry that these companies might sell at high levels for liquidity needs. The dual identities of “long-term holders” and “potential future sellers” make their actions’ impact on sentiment subtle.

TON stands at an interesting crossroads: on one side, short-term technical breakdowns and evident capital outflows; on the other, vibrant ecosystem construction and major players entering the scene. This short-term divergence between price and narrative is common in crypto history, representing both risk and opportunity. For investors, the key may not be guessing tomorrow’s rise or fall but assessing: what is the probability that Telegram’s grand vision—integrating social, payments, and decentralized computing—will succeed? And how much value will TON, as the “economic blood” of this ecosystem, ultimately be assigned? The answer will ultimately be revealed by time and technological implementation.