Author: XY
Translation: Tim, PANews
One year into the bear market
It took me some time to convince myself: we are in a bear market, and it has been ongoing for about a year.
November 2024 marks the market excitement phase, and the issuance of $TRUMP pushed the market to extreme euphoria, the final wild celebration that no one wanted to believe in.
Below, I will explain my views.
All of this started with that old cliché: “History doesn’t repeat, but it often rhymes.”
This silly phrase has caused huge misconceptions in market analysis, almost to the point of being harmful.
It led us to develop path dependence, and also caused us to lose the ability to question.
Yes, this predictive approach based on historical patterns is like looking at the world through a prism etched with old patterns, inevitably misreading the new realities of the present, ultimately causing us to overlook the latest market drivers. This is the root of danger.
More specifically, we misinterpreted two fundamental changes.
Change One
We once thought Meme frenzy was the spark that ignited the altcoin season, but in fact, Meme frenzy itself is the altcoin season.
When Meme coins surged one after another, we thought everything was just beginning.
Some talked about the altcoin season, and daring individuals even mentioned a raging bull market.
We were all wrong.
It’s important to know that each previous cycle involved a bubble-over-bubble phenomenon, usually driven by new narratives. These new narratives give rise to new markets, which often lead to differentiation.
This differentiation is crucial because it splits liquidity into two distinct groups.
The first group is the “dumb money.”
This type of capital prefers simple operations, market depth, and low investment, always staying within highly liquid tokens.
The second group is the “hot money.”
This type actively seeks returns and is willing to overcome complexity to find opportunities.
The subsequent short-term rotation of hot money created a bullish trend, which eventually evolved into what people call the altcoin season.
And this cycle has never produced such a trend before. This time, there was no need to explore new narratives.
Because from the beginning to the end, both groups remained in the same arena.
Dumb money can participate easily without effort, and hot money can still profit through early positioning.
Our mistake was thinking there would be a so-called “altcoin season” this time.
But in reality, it doesn’t exist.
The only path in the market is: from Bitcoin to new narratives, then to altcoin season.
That was the script you wanted.
But the reality is, Meme frenzy became what people expected as the altcoin season.
November 2024 marks the peak of most traders’ profits, and $TRUMP is the climax of market celebration.
Change Two
Bitcoin is no longer dominated by the crypto market internally but is now controlled by institutions and macro markets.
And the macro environment follows a different timetable and reacts differently to various changes.
After the $TRUMP surge, many interpreted Bitcoin’s resilience as the market still being in consolidation or a bull market correction.
This interpretation stems from an anchoring bias: people are used to the experience that Bitcoin must crash to confirm a bear market in past cycles, applying this to a market structure now dominated by institutions.
This cognitive framework is outdated.
Bitcoin has actually moved away from the native market cycles of cryptocurrencies.
Recognizing this, subsequent developments become logical.
The bear market started after MEME coin $TRUMP, regardless of Bitcoin’s price performance.
So, stop focusing only on Bitcoin.
Since January 2025, the market has gone through the full cycle of anxiety, denial, and panic. If you made profits, you can clearly see these stages in those around you; if you suffered losses, you have personally experienced these emotions.
We are now in the anger and depression phase.
So, why am I writing this post?
Two reasons.
First, one of the reasons I profit from the crypto market is the ability to buy near the bottom. If you misjudge the market phase, this advantage disappears.
If you think the bear market isn’t over yet, you will keep waiting for the bottom, unaware that you are already in it.
Second, I hope this perspective can spark intense debate or help people become alert and break free from false cognitive frameworks.
I am highly confident in this judgment.
That’s why I will soon start to prove my judgment through actions.
