Fidelity Global Macro Director Jurrien Timmer pointed out that Bitcoin peaked at $125,000 on October 12 and will enter a bear market year in 2026, with $65,000 to $75,000 as a key support zone; during the same period, gold gained 65% annually, outperforming Bitcoin in resilience.
(Background: Breaking news! The US SEC classifies Bitcoin mining as securities law, suing mining company VBit for fraud involving $95.6 million)
(Additional context: The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by one basis point to 0.75%, the highest in 30 years, causing Bitcoin to surge to $87,500)

Table of Contents

• 18 Months After Halving Peak
• $65,000 to $75,000 Support Zone
• Gold Yearly Gain of 65%

Is the crypto market really cooling down? Fidelity Global Macro Director Jurrien Timmer released a new report on the 19th, stating that he believes the current four-year Bitcoin cycle starting from the 2024 halving has ended in October 2025 at a high of $125,000. This conclusion has dealt a blow to the bulls still hoping for a breakthrough to $150,000.

While I remain a secular bull on Bitcoin, my concern is that Bitcoin may well have ended another 4-year cycle halving phase, both in price and time. If we visually line up all the bull markets (green) we can see that the October high of (after 145 months of rallying fits… pic.twitter.com/Uxg9DTccnt

— Jurrien Timmer )@TimmerFidelity$125k December 18, 2025

( 18 Months After Halving Peak

According to CoinDesk, Jurrien Timmer compared historical data and pointed out that Bitcoin, since the 2024 April halving, peaked approximately 18 months later in October 2025, aligning with past patterns in both timing and price.

Using the long-term trend line since 2013 as a reference, this high also coincides with the end of a 145-month upward cycle. The current $80,000 level has fallen more than 30% from the peak, with trading volume and on-chain activity decreasing simultaneously, indicating a cooling in buying momentum.

) $65,000 to $75,000 Support Zone

Jurrien Timmer defines 2026 as a “market holiday year.” He expects the trend not to crash but to extend sideways or decline slightly over the year, recreating the low-volatility, low-return environment of 2019 and 2022. The report highlights the $65,000 to $75,000 range as a medium-term support zone; falling below $65,000 would erase most of the gains made in 2025.

For retail investors who entered at the October high, this correction means significant paper losses. However, for institutional funds, it presents an opportunity to re-accumulate positions and lower the average cost.

Gold Yearly Gain of 65%

Contrasting with Bitcoin’s liquidity being drained, physical gold wrapped up 2025 strongly. Gold prices climbed from about $2,600 at the start of the year to $4,381 in October, a 65% increase for the year. Jurrien Timmer pointed out that gold has held nearly all of its gains during recent pullbacks, demonstrating its resilience against geopolitical and tariff risks. He emphasized:

Gold is experiencing a structural bull market, not just a short-term spike, showing its superior resilience to Bitcoin amid macro uncertainties.

This is his personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Please exercise caution during high volatility periods.