Bitcoin's "Realized Market Cap" firmly holds at $1.1 trillion! Analyst: The 2026 market outlook is worth looking forward to

Although Bitcoin has retraced over 30% in the past 10 weeks, causing many investors to feel uneasy, on-chain data shows that the spark of a bullish trend still remains.

According to Glassnode data, Bitcoin’s “Realized Cap” currently remains firmly at a historical high of $1.125 trillion, indicating that there has not been a large-scale capital outflow from the market, suggesting that the bull market pattern remains solid.

Unlike the commonly watched “Market Cap” (current price x total circulating supply), this on-chain indicator is more valuable for reference. “Realized Cap” is calculated by summing the last on-chain move price of each Bitcoin, removing the influence of short-term speculation, and reflecting the “actual cost basis invested by investors” and “actual capital inflow.”

In other words, when the Market Cap soars or plunges with the price of Bitcoin, the Realized Cap remains high and stable, indicating that holders are reluctant to sell and that there has been no large-scale loss realization.

According to data from blockchain analysis firm Glassnode, even though Bitcoin has dropped more than 30% from its October all-time high, the “Realized Cap” not only did not fall but continued to rise during the correction period, only recently stabilizing around $1.125 trillion.

This trend is reminiscent of the “tariff panic” outbreak in April this year. At that time, Bitcoin briefly dipped to $76,000, but on-chain capital levels did not retreat. The price then rebounded strongly and reached new highs again.

In contrast, during the 2022 bear market, as prices collapsed, investor confidence shattered, and many capitulated, leading to the Realized Cap shrinking from $470 billion to $385 billion. However, the current market does not show such panic-driven “mass exodus” or “collective surrender” behavior.

Therefore, analysts are beginning to question the so-called “4-year cycle” theory that is revered in the crypto world.

“4-Year Cycle” Narrative Shaken, Surprises in 2026?

Asset management firm Bitwise Europe Research Director Andre Dragosch believes that Bitcoin is very likely to break free from the “4-year cycle” constraints and experience an unexpected surge in 2026.

He explains that against the backdrop of a resilient global economy, continued rate cuts by major central banks, a steepening yield curve, and overall liquidity expansion, such an environment often weakens the US dollar. Historical experience tells us that a “weak dollar” is beneficial for risk assets like Bitcoin.

In my view, Bitcoin’s current price is severely undervalued relative to the current macroeconomic environment, comparable to the recession during the COVID-19 pandemic and the market panic triggered by the FTX collapse. But now, the US shows no signs of recession; instead, signs of renewed growth can be seen.

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Disclaimer: This article is for market information only. All content and opinions are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice. They do not represent the objective views and positions of BlockCast. Investors should make their own decisions and transactions. The author and BlockCast are not responsible for any direct or indirect losses resulting from investor transactions.
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Tags: 2026GlassnodeRealized CapAnalysisCryptoMarketCapPriceInvestmentBitcoinMarketTrend