Bitcoin's "Realized Market Cap" firmly holds at $1.1 trillion! Analyst: The 2026 market outlook is worth looking forward to

Despite Bitcoin experiencing a decline of over 30% in the past 10 weeks, causing concern among many investors, on-chain data shows that the spark of a bullish trend has not been extinguished.
According to Glassnode data, Bitcoin’s “Realized Cap” currently remains firmly above the historic high of $1.125 trillion, indicating that there has been no large-scale capital withdrawal from the market, and suggesting that the bull market structure remains solid.

Unlike the commonly watched “Market Cap” (current price x total circulating supply), this on-chain indicator is more valuable for reference. “Realized Cap” is calculated based on the “last on-chain movement price” of each Bitcoin, removing the influence of short-term speculation, and reflecting the “actual cost basis” invested by investors and the “real capital inflow.”
In other words, when the total market cap soars or plummets with the price of the coin, the Realized Cap remains high and stable, indicating that holders are reluctant to sell and that there has been no large-scale loss realization.
According to data from blockchain analysis firm Glassnode, even when Bitcoin plunged more than 30% from its October all-time high, the “Realized Cap” not only did not fall but continued to rise during the correction period, only recently stabilizing around $1.125 trillion.
This trend is reminiscent of the scene during the “tariff panic” outbreak in April this year. At that time, Bitcoin briefly dipped to $76,000, but on-chain capital levels did not retreat. The price then rebounded strongly and reached new highs.
In contrast, during the 2022 bear market, as the price collapsed, investor confidence shattered, and many capitulated, causing the Realized Cap to bleed from $470 billion down to $385 billion. However, currently, the market does not show such panic-driven “mass exodus” or “collective surrender” behavior.
Therefore, analysts are beginning to question the widely accepted “4-year cycle” theory in the crypto world.
“The 4-Year Cycle” Narrative Shakes, Surprises in 2026?
Bitwise Europe Research Director Andre Dragosch believes that Bitcoin is very likely to break free from the “4-year cycle” constraints and experience an unexpected surge in 2026.
He explains that against the backdrop of a resilient global economy, continued rate cuts by major central banks, a steepening yield curve, and overall liquidity expansion, such an environment often weakens the US dollar. Historical experience tells us that a “weak dollar” is beneficial for risk assets like Bitcoin.