After gold and silver surged wildly, a wave of commodity trading has erupted on the blockchain

Author: Jae, PANews

The highly anticipated Christmas market did not favor the crypto industry but instead ignited a surge in gold and silver. Recently, the spot gold price quietly broke through the $4,500 per ounce mark, while silver’s momentum was even more aggressive, surpassing $75 per ounce for the first time, with an intra-year increase approaching 160%.

This enthusiasm has also spread to the crypto market. Amid the gold and silver bull market, the pace of on-chain commodity trading has accelerated further this year, with tokenized gold and silver reaching a total market cap close to $4 billion. Many Perp DEXs (decentralized perpetual contract exchanges) have launched precious metal assets. Taking leading protocol Ostium as an example, its cumulative trading volume has exceeded $30 billion, with perpetual contracts on commodities accounting for as much as 40%.

Macro Hedging Premium Sparks Gold and Silver Bull Market

The underlying logic behind the epic rally in commodities is not driven by a single factor but results from the resonance of monetary policy shifts, the US dollar credit crisis, and geopolitical conflicts. From a macroeconomic policy perspective, the Federal Reserve abandoned its “higher, longer” tightening stance in the second half of this year. To counter potential recession risks, it implemented three consecutive rate cuts. This policy shift directly caused the US dollar index to fall to its lowest level since March 2022, significantly reducing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold and silver.

Major traditional financial institutions are uniformly optimistic about the commodities sector. Goldman Sachs forecasts gold prices will rise to $4,900 by 2026, believing that global central bank gold purchases and Fed rate cuts will be dual drivers of gold price increases. Analysis indicates that geopolitical risks and economic uncertainties are prompting central banks in emerging markets to accelerate gold accumulation, while potential private investor entry could further push up gold prices. Goldman Sachs expects global central bank monthly gold purchases to remain around 70 tons in 2026.

The IG 2026 Commodities Outlook report states that benefiting from falling real yields, high government spending, and ongoing central bank gold buying, gold prices are expected to continue rising, potentially breaking through $5,000 amid favorable macro conditions. Silver has entered a price discovery phase. With supply shortages for the fifth consecutive year and accelerating industrial demand, technical models point to $72 or even $88. The precious metals sector is driven by genuine macro demand and has long-term structural support.

Yardeni Research has raised its gold price target, predicting it will reach $6,000 by the end of 2026 and possibly hit $10,000 by 2029. Yardeni notes that geopolitical risks and concerns over excessive monetary and fiscal stimulus are key drivers of gold’s upward trend.

As mentioned by these institutions, significant changes are occurring in the sovereign reserves sector. By 2025, emerging market central banks represented by China, Russia, and Poland are showing a strong willingness to allocate more to gold.

China’s central bank has increased its gold holdings for the 13th consecutive month; Russia’s gold reserves surpassed $300 billion for the first time in November, setting a modern record; Poland’s central bank announced it would raise its gold reserve target to 30% of total assets.

This strategic shift from holding US Treasuries to increasing gold reserves has effectively built a relatively solid institutional bottom for gold prices above $4,000. In this context, gold is no longer just seen as a safe-haven asset but may become a neutral anchor point in the global financial order’s de-dollarization phase.

Tokenized Commodity Market Expands to $4 Billion, Tripling in One Year

While traditional hard asset markets experience structural premiums, the RWA (Real World Asset) sector for precious metals is also entering a rapid growth phase.

As of December 26, the total market cap of tokenized commodities has risen to $3.95 billion, nearly $3 billion higher than at the start of the year, representing an approximate 300% increase year-to-date. Commodities have become the most active asset class in the RWA tokenization field after government bonds, with capital flowing rapidly into tokenized commodity markets.

Currently, tokenized gold dominates this niche market, accounting for over 80%. Tether Gold (XAUT) and Paxos Gold (PAXG) are the two leading projects in this space, with market caps of $1.7 billion and $1.6 billion respectively, with 30-day growth rates of 8.53% and 16.83%.

This on-chain gold model will significantly optimize the holding costs and liquidity of traditional gold markets. By mapping physical gold stored in London or Swiss vaults to on-chain tokens, investors will be able to trade with lower entry thresholds.

The essence of this trend is the atomization and real-timeization of financial assets. In traditional finance, commodity settlement often involves complex processes and high logistics costs; on-chain, reserve proofs enabled by smart contracts will allow real-time verification of each tokenized commodity’s authenticity, greatly reducing the marginal costs of AML and KYC procedures.

On-Chain Gold and Silver Trading Gains Momentum

This year, not only have centralized exchanges like Binance, Bybit, and Gate gradually launched spot and futures trading for XAUT/PAXG, but Perp DEXs have also introduced new precious metal assets. If RWA tokenization addresses settlement and transfer issues in commodities, then Perp DEXs provide tools for speculation and hedging.

The bullish trend in precious metals has also spilled over into the Perp DEX sector. PANews has compiled data from several platforms offering commodity trading, among which three have daily trading volumes exceeding $10 million. The leading commodity protocol Ostium has shown strong growth this month.

Ostium’s focus on differentiated positioning in commodity trading may be the main reason for its emergence in the highly competitive Perp DEX space. While competitors like Hyperliquid are still competing in crypto derivatives, over 95% of open contracts on Ostium are concentrated in traditional assets such as gold, energy, and forex. During the surge of gold prices past $4,500, Ostium captured over 50% of the on-chain gold perpetual contract volume.

As of now, Ostium’s total trading volume has exceeded $30 billion, with commodity trading accounting for about 40% of the total. The platform’s growth trajectory reflects a diversification of crypto user profiles: from single “cryptocurrency speculators” to also include “macro hedge traders.”

The rise of on-chain commodity trading not only reveals changes in monetary credit but also signifies a shift in macro asset trading paradigms. A parallel market driven by smart contracts is quietly maturing.

This also marks a move toward mainstream assets beyond alternative assets for crypto investors. It is not only a technological victory but also an inevitable choice for investors seeking diversified asset allocation in uncertain times.

And the on-chain war for commodities may have just begun.