January 2026 Expected Effect ↑… Can Kosdaq Lead the New Year Stock Market Rebound

At the beginning of 2026, expectations for a rebound in the stock market both domestically and internationally are increasingly high. This is because the phenomenon known as the “January Effect” has historically shown significant performance in past return statistics.

According to data from the Korea Exchange, from 1997 to 2025, the Nasdaq Market’s average return in January was 2.69%, ranking first among all months of the year. During this period, out of 29 years, 17 years saw profits in January, with an approximate 60% probability of gains. This indicates relatively higher returns and frequency of increases compared to other months. The Kospi Index’s average return in January also reached 2.12%, which is relatively high; over 46 years, 24 years experienced gains, showing about a 52% increase rate.

This trend is usually attributed to “tax-saving transactions,” where investors sell stocks at the end of the year to avoid capital gains taxes for major shareholders and then repurchase them at the beginning of the new year. Especially in the Nasdaq market, where individual investors constitute a larger proportion, this supply and demand factor has a greater impact. Experts explain that because the Nasdaq market has a high proportion of high-volatility sectors such as biotechnology, its single-month fluctuations are generally larger than those of the Kospi Index.

Expectations for strong performance in January are no exception this year. Securities firms forecast that corporate earnings in the fourth quarter will exceed market expectations and believe this will positively influence the January stock market. According to data from YuLi Investment Securities, the expected operating profit of companies listed on the Kospi Index in the fourth quarter of last year was 72.5 trillion KRW, a roughly 52% increase compared to the same period last year. Earnings growth is expected to be a driving force behind a stock price rebound.

Additionally, the consumer electronics show “CES 2026,” which offers insights into global IT trends, also provides a positive outlook for the market. The event will highlight key growth themes such as artificial intelligence(AI) technology, and capital is expected to flow into related sectors. Meanwhile, the government’s policies to activate the Nasdaq market are also seen as factors supporting the market sentiment. These policy-driven and technological dynamics are providing investment incentives for small and medium-sized growth stocks or Nasdaq-listed companies.

If this trend continues, the January stock market in 2026 may also perform strongly like in previous years. However, beyond short-term supply and demand factors, multiple variables such as corporate performance, policy directions, and the global economic environment are at play, and investors should remain somewhat cautious.