XRP Today's News: Senate to review Market Bill on January 15, bullish challenge to $3

U.S. Senate Banking Committee Deliberates on the “Market Structure Bill” on January 15, combined with a net inflow of $1.18 billion into XRP spot ETFs, forming a double positive. In December, XRP ETF net inflows approached $500 million, while Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs experienced outflows of $1.09 billion and $617 million respectively, indicating a possible decoupling. Analysts expect XRP bulls to challenge $3.0 in the medium term.

Schedule for the “Market Structure Bill” Deliberation Confirmed, Ending Government Shutdown Shadows

On December 31, the U.S. Senate Banking Committee officially announced that it will review the “Market Structure Bill” on January 15, injecting confidence into XRP’s price. Previously, the U.S. government shutdown dampened hopes for favorable cryptocurrency legislation before the year’s end and pressured market sentiment. Notably, XRP fell from a high of $2.9619 on October 1 to a low of $1.7712 on December 19, a decline of 40.2%.

Although the U.S. government reopened on November 12, the shutdown delayed progress on the “Market Structure Bill” and overshadowed the launch of XRP spot ETFs and strong capital inflows. The latest developments and prospects for passing the “Market Structure Bill” lay the foundation for a bullish price outlook into 2026. If enacted, this legislation would provide clearer regulation for cryptocurrencies, attract a broader investor base, and stimulate institutional interest.

As a background reference, after the U.S. House of Representatives passed the “Market Structure Bill” on July 17, XRP’s price surged 14.69% in a single day, compared to only 0.39% for BTC and 3.10% for ETH. This differentiated performance highlights XRP’s high sensitivity to cryptocurrency regulatory developments on Capitol Hill, which are influenced by the outcome of the SEC’s lawsuit against Ripple. On August 22, the U.S. Court of Appeals approved Ripple and SEC’s motion to withdraw their appeal, a ruling that legitimizes XRP as a non-security and paves the way for the U.S. XRP spot ETF market.

XRP Spot ETF Capital Surge Outpaces BTC and ETH

The most exciting news for the market today is the capital flow performance of spot ETFs. Since launch, the U.S. XRP spot ETF market has accumulated a net inflow of $1.18 billion, far surpassing BTC and ETH spot ETF markets. Even more astonishing, there are only 5 XRP spot ETF products, compared to 11 for BTC and 9 for ETH. Despite having fewer products than competitors, XRP spot ETFs still attract such substantial capital, demonstrating strong institutional demand.

December’s capital flows are even more striking: XRP spot ETF net inflows reached $499.91 million, while BTC and ETH spot ETFs reported net outflows of $1.09 billion and $616.82 million respectively. This divergence in capital flow trends suggests XRP may decouple from BTC and the broader crypto market. Canary Funds CEO Steven McClurg recently stated:

“I believe XRP will actually become a unique asset. Altcoins usually follow Bitcoin’s trend, but I believe some assets will diverge from the mainstream in this way. Seeing XRP remain resilient while all other cryptocurrencies decline, with daily capital inflows, I believe XRP could stay strong into 2026.”

McClurg’s outlook emphasizes the importance of capital inflows into XRP spot ETFs and the progress of crypto-friendly legislation. This combination reinforces a short- to mid-term constructive trend.

Price Outlook Amid Divergence Between Technical and Fundamental Factors

(Source: Trading View)

Short, Medium, and Long-Term Target Prices and Key Technical Levels

Short-term (1-4 weeks) target: $2.5

Key Resistance: 50-day EMA at $2.0404

Breakout Signal: Sustained above $2.2

Support Levels: $2.0, $1.75

Medium-term (4-8 weeks) target: $3.0

Key Resistance: 200-day EMA at $2.3472

Driving Factors: Passage of the Market Structure Bill, continued ETF capital inflows

Risk Points: Falling below $1.75 would indicate a bearish trend reversal

Long-term (8-12 weeks) target: $3.66

Driving Factors: Fed rate cuts in March, Senate passing the bill

Extreme Optimism: Challenging $5 within 6-12 months

Major Downside Risks:

· Bank of Japan announces neutral interest rate of 1.5% to 2.5%, triggering yen arbitrage unwinding

· Fed hawkish stance reduces March rate cut expectations

· MSCI removes digital asset reserve companies from indices

· Partisan opposition to the Market Structure Bill

· XRP spot ETF reports capital outflows

Despite XRP expecting four consecutive days of gains, the price remains below the 50-day and 200-day EMA, indicating a bearish technical bias. However, the divergence between technical and fundamental factors is creating an interesting hedge pattern. While technicals remain bearish, fundamentals are strengthening, often a precursor to trend reversals.

On the daily chart, breaking above the 50-day moving average suggests a potential short-term trend reversal. Continued breakout above this level would focus attention on the 200-day moving average and the $2.5 resistance. Surpassing EMA lines would solidify a medium-term bullish outlook and support the long-term (8-12 weeks) target of $3.66.

On January 3, XRP rose 0.60%, consolidating the previous day’s 6.76% gain, closing at $2.0184. The token’s movement aligns with the overall crypto market cap, which increased by 0.71%. The price returning to $2 highlights a shift in investor sentiment after a prolonged period of narrow consolidation in late December.

Policy and Capital Drivers Support Long-Term Bullish Trend

Looking ahead, Federal Reserve policies, Bank of Japan interest rate stance, U.S. economic data, crypto regulation news, and XRP spot ETF capital flows will influence near-term price movements. Expectations of a March rate cut by the Fed and a more dovish, neutral interest rate stance by the Bank of Japan (between 1% and 1.25%) could boost market sentiment. Large capital inflows into XRP spot ETFs and bipartisan support for the Market Structure Bill will further reinforce bullish prospects.

In summary, strong institutional demand for XRP spot ETFs and progress in crypto regulation underpin an expectation that XRP will rise to $3.0 within 4-8 weeks. If the Fed cuts rates in March and the Senate passes the “Market Structure Bill,” the long-term (8-12 weeks) target of $3.66 remains intact. Over the next 12 weeks, these key catalysts could push XRP beyond its all-time high of $3.66, implying a target of $5 within 6-12 months.