Gate Research Institute: Year-End Effect Drives Recovery | Solana to Receive Major Update

Cryptocurrency Asset Overview

BTC (+1.85% | Current Price 92,898.3 USDT)

BTC has completed a high-level consolidation -> volume breakout -> accelerated rally in the past 24 hours, forming a bullish trend structure. On the macro level, recent fluctuations in US Treasury yields have stabilized, and the market’s pessimistic expectations for rate cuts have been partially digested, placing risk assets in a recovery window. Technically, short-term moving averages (MA5, MA10) have turned steep again and are aligned in a stable bullish configuration with MA30. In the short term, BTC is expected to maintain strong oscillation within the $92,000–$93,500 range. If it tests support at $91,500 without breaking down, the upside target could further extend toward the $94,000–$94,500 zone.

ETH (+1.2% | Current Price 3,184.56 USDT)

ETH has continued its upward trend over the past 24 hours, consolidating at high levels before following BTC with volume-driven gains, with the price approaching $3,200. On the technical side, short-term moving averages (MA5, MA10) have turned steep again and are aligned bullishly with MA30, with dips consistently supported by mid-term averages, indicating that the current rally is driven more by trend inertia than emotional trading. In the short term, ETH is likely to stay strong within the $3,150–$3,200 range. If it does not fall below $3,120, the upside potential could open further toward $3,220–$3,250. It’s important to note that although ETH is currently in a steady trend-following phase with a healthy structure, it has not yet entered an independent acceleration zone. The short-term key remains BTC’s stability at high levels.

GT (+1.14% | Current Price 10.59 USDT)

GT has maintained a high-level oscillation over the past 24 hours, repeatedly testing the $10.65–$10.70 zone but without a confirmed breakout. Overall, it remains in a range-bound consolidation phase. Technically, the short- and medium-term moving averages are tightly clustered and slowly rising, indicating a relatively strong trend but with limited slope, leaning more toward a sideways-biased structure rather than trend acceleration. In the short term, GT may continue trading within the $10.45–$10.70 range, with a focus on range-bound trading until a volume-driven breakout confirms the direction.

Daily Gainers and Losers Tokens

From the overall market structure, this rally is led by BTC, with mainstream assets like ETH, BNB, SOL following in sync, but with restrained gains, and no signs of widespread spillover into high-risk assets. Stablecoins remain steady, indicating that funds are mainly reallocating within the market rather than rushing in driven by sentiment. Overall, the market is in a trend validation phase, with a relatively healthy upward structure and manageable risk appetite.

PONKE PONKE (+88%, Market Cap $33.46M)

According to Gate data, PONKE token is currently priced at $0.0605, up over 80% in 24 hours. PONKE is a community-driven meme coin on Solana, featuring an angry monkey mascot (styled after Pepe the Frog and a “degenerate gambler with anger issues”). It is gradually expanding into multi-chain ecosystems, real-world goods (such as NFC chip toys, plushies, collaborations with RIPNDIP), and Solana validator nodes, aiming to shift from pure meme to a “tokenized entertainment” brand.

The rise of PONKE is related to the overall rebound in the Meme coin sector and capital rotation into the Solana ecosystem. Recently, other top Solana Meme tokens like BONK have experienced significant gains, indicating a clear revival in the Solana Meme sector. As an established Meme token launched in 2023, PONKE is likely to be re-priced by capital.

MSQ MSQUARE (+59%, Market Cap $19.61M)

According to Gate data, MSQ is currently priced at $1.29, up nearly 60% in 24 hours. MSQUARE (MSQ) is a utility token issued by MSQUARE GLOBAL Foundation; the project aims to be a platform integrating real economy and blockchain, with core goals of reducing cross-border payment friction, offering real-world application discounts, and supporting multiple proprietary platforms.

As a real-world platform narrative, MSQ has no major recent news but continues operations, potentially building positive community and Korean user expectations. The recent rally is attributed to liquidity resets earlier this year, a rebound in small-cap tokens, and short-term FOMO, rather than a single catalyst.

WOLF Landwolf (+40%, Market Cap $15.57M)*

According to Gate data, WOLF is currently priced at $0.00001683, up 40% in 24 hours. LandWolf (WOLF) is a Meme coin on Solana, inspired by the character “Landwolf” from Matt Furie’s “Boys’ Club” comics. The character is known for a lazy, smart, pizza-eating, candle-sniffing “degen” image, positioned as Pepe’s partner/brother, emphasizing community-driven, zero transaction tax, pure meme culture.

WOLF’s rise is driven by the revival of the Matt Furie family narrative, boosted by PEPE’s strong rebound. The PEPE rally has also triggered rotation within the Boys’ Club family: BRETT remains steady, ANDY is accumulating at low levels, and WOLF is viewed as an “undervalued leveraged play.” Viral campaigns like “YEAR OF THE WOLF” have further amplified FOMO.

Hot Topic Analysis

Global markets rally across the board, Asia-Pacific stocks lead

At the start of 2026, global financial markets have kicked off strongly, with a broad rally. Asia-Pacific stocks are especially prominent, leading the charge. Japan’s Nikkei 225 surged over 2% on its first full trading day; Korea’s Kospi hit a new all-time high (breaking 4,420 points); Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index continued its strong rebound; and the MSCI Asia-Pacific (excluding Japan) index outperformed other regions significantly. This rally is mainly driven by geopolitical catalysts—such as a military action boosting risk appetite—and policy stimulus expectations in Asian economies, including potential easing in China, governance reforms in Japan, combined with liquidity resets, prompting quick capital inflows into high-beta assets.

Meanwhile, the crypto market also surged, with BTC approaching $93,000, ETH nearing $3,200, and major coins like XRP posting notable gains. Market sentiment shifted from cautiousness at year-end to a clear bullish outlook. US stock futures edged higher, continuing the optimistic AI-driven tone from 2025, while precious metals maintained their impressive gains: gold over $4,400/oz, silver rebounding nearly 4%, supported by FED rate cut expectations—pricing in at least two 25-basis-point cuts in 2026, potential dollar weakening, geopolitical safe-haven demand, and structural supply-demand imbalances. Overall, this broad rally is a combination of “year-start effect” (funds replenishing after tax-loss harvesting), geopolitical catalysts, macro easing expectations, and risk appetite recovery. Liquidity shifted rapidly from holiday lows to active levels, but trading volume remains thin, with short-term volatility risks still present, caution is advised against profit-taking or sudden reversals.

Infinex has raised about $550,000 in the past two days of public sale

Infinex is a Crypto Superapp launched by Synthetix founder Kain Warwick, aiming to create a user experience close to CEX with a non-custodial multi-chain wallet and DeFi platform supporting cross-chain swaps, leverage trading, yield optimization, etc., with passkey biometric login to avoid traditional seed phrases and gas fees. The project raised $65.3 million in 2024, with participation from Solana Ventures and others.

The public sale started at 06:00 UTC on January 3, 2026, selling 5% of the total supply via Sonar platform, aiming to raise $5 million, with a FDV of $99.99 million. It has a 1-year lock-up period (early unlock possible with a penalty based on a higher FDV, e.g., $300 million). However, in the first two days, only about $55,000 was raised, with a completion rate of just 11%. There are 350 participants, averaging about $1,600 each, far below expectations. The current fundraising pace has slowed significantly, with only a few thousand dollars per hour. Models predict a final raise of only $2–$2.5 million, unlikely to reach the $5 million target.

The poor fundraising performance of Infinex is mainly due to multiple negative factors stacking up. Initially, a high FDV of $3 billion and a $15 million raise caused strong community backlash for “over-dilution,” leading to an emergency adjustment that damaged trust, with many turning cautious. The 1-year lock-up and early unlock penalties are unfriendly to short-term speculators and liquidity needs, less attractive than current lockless or short vesting projects. Additionally, the overall crypto public sale market is challenging. Despite Kain Warwick’s team’s long-term value and product vision, the flawed sale design highlights the importance of proper pricing and community consensus in token issuance.

Solana is about to launch a major consensus layer upgrade, Alpenglow

Alpenglow is a significant consensus layer upgrade for Solana, aiming to replace the existing Tower BFT (Byzantine Fault Tolerance protocol) and Proof of History mechanisms entirely. The goal is to reduce block finalization time from the current 12.8 seconds to a theoretical 100–150 milliseconds, roughly 1/100 of the original. This upgrade introduces two core components: Votor and Rotor. Votor is a lightweight voting aggregation model that allows validators to aggregate votes off-chain and confirm finality through single or double rounds, with “Fast Finalization” (over 80% support in the first round) and “Slow Finalization” (60–80% support, requiring a second round). These run in parallel to ensure consensus even with partial participation. Rotor reconstructs the block propagation layer, optimizing data dissemination based on staking weight, with simulations showing block propagation times as low as 18 milliseconds, significantly boosting network throughput.

Delphi Digital indicates that this upgrade is expected to be gradually rolled out in the first half of 2026, reflecting Solana’s long-term commitment to performance and stability. Alpenglow is a key step toward maturity for Solana, shifting its narrative from “high throughput” to “sub-second finality + institutional friendliness,” especially suitable for real-time DeFi, gaming, and trading applications. However, challenges remain, and real-world network performance still needs validation.
References:

• Gate, https://www.gate.com/trade/BTC_USDT
• Farside Investors, https://farside.co.uk/btc/
• Gate, https://www.gate.com/trade/ETH_USDT
• Farside Investors, https://farside.co.uk/eth/
• Gate, https://www.gate.com/crypto-market-data
• Investing, https://investing.com/indices/usa-indices
• Investing, https://investing.com/currencies/xau-usd
• CoinGecko, https://www.coingecko.com/en/cryptocurrency-heatmap
• Infinex Sale Tracker, https://inx-ico.swishi.xyz/
• Delphi Digital, https://x.com/Delphi_Digital/status/2007125651892117585?s=20

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