Global M2 remains strong at $115.9 trillion... Market indicators simultaneously signal stability

Global liquidity indicators and on-chain & ETF data simultaneously release signals of stabilization, with the Bitcoin market continuing its balanced pattern after adjustments.

According to Biogeometrics statistics, as of January 5, the global M2 supply reached $115.9775 trillion, an increase of approximately 0.38% from the previous week’s $115.5422 trillion. Continuing the net growth trend from the previous week, global M2 maintains a moderate recovery pattern after experiencing a short-term low.

The cumulative 7-week change has been 1.75%, up from 0.96% the previous week, indicating that the short-term liquidity recovery speed has once again accelerated. After prior adjustments, the momentum of capital inflows is re-accumulating.

Year-over-year growth is 10.91%, up from 9.60% the previous week, suggesting that the liquidity expansion trend measured annually is being re-strengthened. This indicator shows that the global monetary environment remains in a loose pattern.

Overall, the global M2 month-on-month increase has expanded, highlighting a renewed recovery trend. The short-term cumulative increase and year-over-year growth both rebounded and maintained expansion, which can be interpreted as a steady continuation of the monetary easing environment rather than a sharp liquidity inflation. This indicates that despite short-term fluctuations, the liquidity foundation for risk assets like Bitcoin remains solid from a medium-term perspective.

Bitcoin: MVRV Z-Score / Bitcoin Magazine Professional Edition

Given the influence of multiple factors such as market shocks, large-scale profit-taking, ETF and corporate investment expansion, it is necessary to monitor auxiliary variables such as market overheating or selling pressure alongside liquidity indicators.

The MVRV Z-Score is currently 1.29, up from 1.06 the previous week. Although still in the neutral zone (0-2), it shows a gradual recovery after adjustment rather than entering an overheating phase.

Recently, Bitcoin’s realized market cap has reached $1.12139640 trillion, an increase from the previous week. This indicates that despite short-term price fluctuations, on-chain capital inflows and cost basis are being re-affirmed, which can be interpreted as the market restoring balance and restructuring rather than excessive unrealized profit expansion.

The proportion of holdings held for over one year (1+ Year HODL Wave) is 59.43%, slightly up from 59.38% the previous week. The share of Bitcoin supply that has not moved for over a year continues to increase, showing that long-term holders’ coin-holding tendencies are sustained.

While maintaining around 59%, the supply restriction effect of long-term holders is buffering against market volatility. This suggests that despite short-term price changes, medium- and long-term holding preferences remain stable.

The US cryptocurrency spot ETF market has shaken off the short-term adjustment pattern. Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs have experienced net capital inflows for two consecutive trading days, signaling clear signs of recovery.

As of January 5 (local time), the Bitcoin spot ETF saw a single-day net inflow of $697.25 million. The total net inflow has expanded to $57.78 billion, with total net assets reaching $123.52 billion, accounting for 6.57% of Bitcoin’s market cap. On the same day, Ethereum spot ETFs also maintained capital inflows, with a net inflow of $168.13 million. The total net inflow reached $12.67 billion, with total net assets of $1.995 billion, equivalent to 5.10% of Ethereum’s market cap.