Trump's 25% tariffs trigger increased macro uncertainty; is Bitcoin's accumulation phase facing a new round of testing?

Despite the macro environment coming under renewed pressure, the Bitcoin market still shows certain structural resilience. As of January 2026, based on on-chain data, the crypto market continues to emit classic accumulation signals. In terms of market sentiment, the cryptocurrency fear and greed index has rebounded by about 30 points since late November 2025, currently returning to a neutral zone, while the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies has remained stable around $3 trillion for an extended period, indicating no obvious signs of capital withdrawal.

Overall, Bitcoin (BTC) has been oscillating around $90,000 over the past few weeks, with the price trend suggesting a potential bottoming structure is forming. Historically, January tends to be a relatively strong period for Bitcoin, which also leaves room for the market to imagine a challenge to the $100,000 level. However, new macro disturbances are adding uncertainty to this outlook.

As a background, Trump announced a 25% tariff on countries engaged in trade with Iran, which has taken effect immediately. After the announcement, Bitcoin closed at $92,000, up about 1.2% for the day, with no significant volatility, and the market reaction was relatively restrained. Some investors interpret this performance as the market gradually adapting to the tariff environment, with Bitcoin’s shock resistance improving.

However, further analysis still requires caution. Data shows that China is Iran’s largest trading partner, accounting for about 30% of its total foreign trade, making the potential spillover effects of this tariff policy not to be ignored. From an on-chain perspective, data from Glassnode indicates that the behavior of long-term Bitcoin holders (LTH) is currently closer to a “high uncertainty” phase, a pattern that often appears early in deeper corrections historically.

Short-term key support levels for Bitcoin remain around $80,000, closely overlapping with the average cost range of ETF holders. But with a fragile position structure and the re-escalation of tariff issues, Bitcoin’s price volatility risk is accumulating. For investors concerned with Bitcoin’s 2026 trend, the impact of tariffs, and macro policy risks, it is still necessary to remain cautious and observant at this stage.