ChainCatcher news reports that since mid-2025, Bitcoin has begun to decouple from the global M2 money supply (which includes the total amount of money in circulation such as cash, demand deposits, time deposits, etc.), and this trend has become more pronounced in early 2026. Historically, the correlation between the two has been the basis for bullish forecasts, but now analysts are seriously divided on this phenomenon.
Fidelity Digital Assets maintained an optimistic outlook in its January report, believing that as the global monetary easing cycle begins and the Federal Reserve’s QT plan ends, the M2 growth rate will continue to rise in 2026, which is positive for Bitcoin prices. Analyst MartyParty predicts that Bitcoin prices will rebound to catch up with M2 growth.
However, Mister Crypto points out that decoupling of Bitcoin price from M2 usually signals a market top, followed by a 2-4 year bear market. Capriole Investments’ founder believes that the decoupling reflects the risk of quantum computing cracking Bitcoin’s encryption. Despite the uncertainty, investors still view Bitcoin as a long-term store of value.
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