BlockBeats News, January 15 — Arthur Hayes stated in his latest article “Frowny Cloud”:
"Although the gains are not as significant as gold, Bitcoin’s performance in 2025 is actually completely in line with expectations; it has done what it was supposed to do.
If Bitcoin performs poorly in 2025, it’s entirely a liquidity story, as it declines along with dollar liquidity. Gold and the Nasdaq are able to rise against the trend because they are driven by stronger non-liquidity factors (sovereign de-dollarization + AI quasi-nationalization). But if in 2026 dollar liquidity expands significantly as expected (Federal Reserve restarts money printing + commercial banks strategically lend + real estate leverages again), then Bitcoin will rebound strongly when it’s time to do so.
The current outlook is: Trump will aggressively push credit to ‘make the economy hot.’ A super-hot economy will help the Republican Party in the November elections this year, and it is expected that dollar credit will expand through the following means:
· The Federal Reserve’s balance sheet expands again (money printing)
· Commercial banks flood ‘strategic industries’ with liquidity
· Mortgage rates decline due to money printing"
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