Binance Internal Horse Race: Who Will Win Among the Three Major Prediction Markets?

Written by: Yue Xiaoyu

Prediction markets will definitely be the biggest trend and hot spot in 2026.

It’s important to note that there are two major events in 2026: the World Cup and the US midterm elections.

These two significant events will directly trigger a new wave of enthusiasm for prediction markets.

The three hottest areas in prediction markets are sports, cryptocurrencies, and political events.

Currently, in the overall market landscape, Polymarket can be said to dominate and is the absolute leader.

Next is the compliant platform Kalshi, which has already captured a large share of the US market.

Apart from that, the position of Long Er (a key player) has not yet been firmly established.

Currently, there are three popular candidates in the Binance ecosystem: Opinion @opinionlabsxyz, PredictFun @predictdotfun, and Probable @0xProbable.

So, which of these three can come out on top?

I take Polymarket as a benchmark and have conducted a systematic comparison and analysis of the three projects.

Product Background Comparison

Polymarket’s founder is a computer dropout from New York University.

The product was launched around 2020, but it really gained popularity during the 2024 US election. It has raised over $2.3 billion in total funding, making this project quite legendary.

This also shows that our Web3 industry is full of opportunities.

Opinion’s founder and team mainly come from Hong Kong and many top financial institutions. It is also a project invested by Binance, launched in October 2025.

PredictFun’s founder was previously an employee at Binance, later involved in PancakeSwap and several other projects. It is also a Binance-invested project.

Probable was directly incubated by the PancakeSwap team and also received investment from Binance.

Overall, the backgrounds of the three are very similar. However, Probable is a true Binance core project, and undoubtedly, it will receive focused support in the future.

Product Form Comparison

Currently, none of these projects have their own standalone app; they mainly operate on the web. Later, these projects also developed H5 versions, meaning mobile-compatible versions.

Let’s look at some data to evaluate their current development status.

First, Polymarket has about 270,000 weekly active addresses, with a trading volume of $1.8 billion and an average trading volume of $6,666 per user.

Opinion has 46,000 active addresses, with a trading volume of $1.9 billion and an average of $41,304 per user, surpassing the leader.

This is mainly because it has a points system, and many users are there to earn airdrops.

PredictFun has 9,000 active addresses, with a trading volume of $110 million, which is over ten times less than the first two.

Probable’s scale is similar to PredictFi, with 11,000 active addresses and a trading volume of $260 million.

Overall, since Opinion launched earlier than the other two, after Polymarket sparked the prediction market boom, it directly attracted market attention and liquidity overflow.

Coupled with airdrop expectations, it established a significant competitive advantage.

Core Advantages and Disadvantages of the Products

First, the differentiated competitive points:

Polymarket’s biggest advantage is that it has already built a moat, with the best liquidity and the most mature trading experience.

After all, it has been around since 2020, developing for five years.

This is the biggest barrier.

Of course, its disadvantages are also obvious. As a leading prediction market, it faces the greatest regulatory pressure.

Its development status also represents the ceiling of this track.

Next is Opinion, which differentiates itself by proposing a concept of unified cross-market liquidity.

It mainly focuses on macro predictions.

Therefore, it is more suitable for professional traders.

However, its disadvantages include higher transaction fees and a relatively complex points system, with users exploring how to better earn points.

PredictFun’s differentiation lies in high capital utilization efficiency, thanks to an innovative mechanism called yield routing.

In other prediction markets, after users place bets, funds are locked in smart contracts. But PredictFun created a new mechanism that allows these funds to be allocated to on-chain protocols to generate yields.

This improves overall capital efficiency.

However, this project also has disadvantages. Its founder’s background is somewhat controversial, including conflicts with CZ and past project failures, which drew community criticism.

Thus, the founder is the biggest weakness of this project.

Finally, Probable’s advantage is zero transaction fees, supported by PancakeSwap, a leading BSC protocol, effectively providing liquidity support.

Its overall user experience is simple and friendly, consistent with PancakeSwap’s style.

But its disadvantages are also clear. Since it was incubated by PancakeSwap, its independent branding is weak.

Plus, being a relatively new platform, its trading depth is still insufficient.

Feature Comparison - Registration and Recharge

After comparing the basic information of the four projects, let’s look at their functional differences. I’ve divided this into several modules: user onboarding, registration, recharge, trading, points system, and specific prediction events.

Starting with registration: all these platforms are quite similar, supporting social login and wallet login. They create an internal wallet based on the user’s social or wallet account, so the registration experience is basically the same.

Next, recharge: Polymarket offers the most diverse options. Not only can users connect their wallets to recharge, but also connect exchange accounts, manually recharge, use bank cards, and integrate third-party payments like PayPal and Google Pay.

I think this is a very mature feature of Polymarket.

Since prediction markets are not limited to Web3 users, and are more like a killer app capable of mass adoption, many outside users are also using this platform.

Supporting traditional payment methods for recharge greatly lowers the entry barrier for external users.

Finally, all transactions are settled in USDC on the Polygon chain and used within the platform.

Opinion does not support exchange payments or third-party bank card payments. Currently, it only supports USDT recharge on BSC. This is relatively limited, especially for crypto-native Web3 users, who only support one chain’s token, requiring them to find cross-chain bridges or trade.

PredictFun and Probable perform better here, supporting assets from other chains and allowing users to exchange freely.

Feature Comparison - Trading

Order matching modes differ somewhat among these platforms.

Polymarket mainly uses off-chain CLOB matching combined with on-chain settlement.

It supports limit orders, and split/merge orders are also zero-fee.

The three BSC projects use fully on-chain order books.

Opinion has proposed a MetaPool concept, which aims to unify cross-market liquidity.

It’s not implemented yet, but if it is, it would be very beneficial for professional traders.

PredictFun has created a yield routing mechanism, allowing underlying assets to be placed into on-chain protocols to generate yields.

Probable is somewhat weaker overall; it mainly uses optimistic proofs for its mechanism.

Feature Comparison - Points System

Polymarket does not have a points system, but the others do.

Points systems are key for early-stage projects to accelerate growth through airdrops.

This also indicates that these three projects will definitely issue tokens, with clear airdrop expectations.

In highly competitive tracks, ordinary users have more opportunities, so participation is essential.

Feature Comparison - Prediction Events

Regarding prediction events across the platform, Polymarket has the most, with about 24,000.

Opinion has 200, PredictFi 100, and Probable 200.

The latter three are roughly similar in scale.

Currently, none of these support self-creation of markets.

In the future, they may consider decentralized prediction markets or semi-permissioned market creation.

Regarding support for Chinese markets, Probable performs quite well, supporting Chinese language (though it does not support direct search of prediction event names in Chinese).

Since it’s in the BSC ecosystem, where Chinese users are the largest group, their Chinese localization is relatively friendly.

Summary

Trading Experience: Opinion > Probable > PredictFun

Liquidity: Opinion > Probable > PredictFun

Relation to Binance: Probable > Opinion > PredictFun

Future Development Potential (personal view): Probable > Opinion > PredictFun