In the final moments of the US-Iran escalation, Trump confirms negotiations are making progress. Has gunboat diplomacy won?

As tensions between the United States and Iran approach a critical point, with Trump deploying aircraft carriers, Iran’s Supreme National Security Council Chairman Ali Larijani confirmed on Saturday that progress is being made in establishing a negotiation framework between the two sides.
(Background recap: Is Trump about to deliver a “decisive blow” to Iran? US-Iran nuclear talks deadlocked, Lincoln arrives in the Middle East… Pizza index soars again)
(Additional background: Trump’s latest move: imposing 25% tariffs on trade with Iran and other countries, with China and India hit hardest)

Table of Contents

• A Contract on the Edge of the Cliff
• Standoff at the Negotiation Table
• The Crowded Chessboard

After the US and Iran reached an impasse over restrictions on nuclear programs and ballistic missile capabilities, the USS Lincoln strike group arrived in Middle Eastern waters this week, and F-15E Strike Eagles have been deployed to Jordan… Originally, international concerns were that the first missile might be launched from the Hormuz Strait over the weekend, but at the last moment, Tehran unexpectedly expressed willingness to talk.

A Contract on the Edge of the Cliff

Iran’s Supreme National Security Council Chairman Ali Larijani confirmed on Saturday, in a rare statement, that progress is being made in establishing a negotiation framework between the US and Iran. Trump subsequently made it clear in an interview with American media, using his usual business tone, to confirm this.

Iran is talking with us, we’ll see if we can do something, or just wait and see… The US has a large fleet heading to the Middle East.

Just when everyone thought hostilities might erupt, they started “bidding.”

Standoff at the Negotiation Table

Since both sides are now at the negotiation table, let’s look at their current demands:

The US’s main condition is for Iran to fully disarm: abandon nuclear programs, stop developing ballistic missiles, cut support to proxies like the Houthis, and even accept a condition Tehran considers a dead end—recognition of Israel.

For Iran, this isn’t an agreement; it’s a surrender document. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi’s stance is very firm. He publicly stated in Turkey: We will discuss nuclear issues, but no one is allowed to touch our missiles. In his view, those missiles are Iran’s only insurance for survival in a Middle East surrounded by wolves.

It’s like negotiating a purchase where the buyer (the US) demands the seller (Iran) destroy all core patents before signing. Such a deal usually doesn’t close at this stage unless one side is on the brink of bankruptcy, and here… bankruptcy would mean regime collapse.

The Crowded Chessboard

What’s more complicated is that this game’s complexity isn’t just a Washington-Tehran duel but involves the entire Middle East and even Moscow trying to get a piece of the action.

Just a day before Larijani extended goodwill, he met with Putin in Moscow. Turkey’s foreign minister and Qatar are also shuttling around, each trying to carve out a share in this new power structure or at least ensure they won’t be sacrificed.

For the markets, current news is a “short-term painkiller.” Tensions might temporarily stabilize due to negotiations, and Wall Street may breathe a little easier. But as long as the US fleet remains on the attack line and Iran clings to its missiles, this tightrope walk could collapse at any moment due to a sudden gust of wind.

In the coming weeks, keep a close eye on the Strait of Hormuz—every breeze there could trigger sensitive nerves and influence global market volatility.