Every Time XRP Hit the Current Extreme Oversold Levels, a 15-40% Bounce Followed

XRP recently slipped into an extreme oversold level that has often preceded a 15-40% rebound from the prevailing downtrend.

The cryptocurrency market has not fared well since Q4 2025, and XRP remains one of the biggest victims. Notably, since Q4 2025, XRP has lost nearly 50% of its value, collapsing from $2.84 to the current price of $1.43. However, market data indicates that the persistent downtrend has resulted in extremely oversold RSI readings.

Specifically, the XRP relative strength index (RSI) on the daily timeframe recently slipped to an extreme low of 17, as prices crashed to the $1.11 area. This marked a 12-year floor, representing only the second time the RSI has hit such lows. Interestingly, whenever the RSI dropped to extreme lows, analysts expect a 15-40% rebound.

Key Points

• XRP has been in the middle of a turbulent market over the past few months, collapsing with the rest of the crypto market.
• Since Q4 2025, XRP has lost nearly 50% of its value, having dropped from $2.84 in October 2025 to the current price of $1.43.
• The ongoing downtrend intensified on Feb. 5, 2026, when XRP crashed by more than 19%, leading to a sharp drop in the RSI.
• The XRP RSI collapsed to an extreme low of 17 on Feb. 5, marking the lowest reading in 14 years and representing only the second time in history that XRP saw such lows.
• Each time XRP’s RSI drops to extreme lows, analysts typically expect a 15-40% rebound as buyers step into the market.

XRP Slumps Amid Market Downturn

This changed in Q4 2025, as the Oct. 10 (10/10) market crash kick-started an extensive downward trend that has lingered till today. Notably, from its October 2025 opening price of $2.84, XRP has now dropped 49.6%, as it changes hands at $1.43. This means XRP has lost nearly half of its value since Q4 2025.

The Feb 5 Slump and Its Impact on XRP RSI

Amid this downtrend, XRP and the crypto market recorded their worst day on Feb. 5, 2025, when the global crypto market lost $311 billion. Notably, on this day, XRP slumped 19.6%, marking its largest intraday decline in five years

XRP 1D Chart | Ripple Bull WinkleThis sudden crash had a visible impact on the daily RSI, pushing it to an extreme low of 17.07. The Crypto Basic previously confirmed that the RSI across multiple timelines, such as the monthly and weekly, also suffered similar slumps, hitting record lows. Notably, this 17.07 reading on the daily RSI marked the lowest figure since 2014.

“A 15-40% Bounce Followed Within Two Weeks”

In his latest commentary, Winkle suggested that whenever XRP hit such extreme lows in its RSI, what typically follows is a 15-40% rebound within two weeks. “Not sometimes, every time,” the market pundit added, seeking to call attention to the reliability of the momentum signal.

Notably, market data confirms this trend, as XRP has historically rebounded considerably each time the RSI dropped below 30. The last time this occurred was on Oct. 10, when the daily RSI hit 26.43, coinciding with an XRP price low of $1.58. From here, XRP recovered 70% to $2.69 thirteen days later.

Before now, the daily RSI dropped to 26.14 on July 5, 2024, aligning with a price of $0.3825. When the rebound came, XRP soared 65% to $0.63 after twelve days. Another occurrence on April 13, 2024, saw the RSI reach 28.2. What followed was a 35% price rebound from $0.42 to $0.57 in nine days.

This consistent price action has led to Winkle’s confidence that a recurrence could occur this time. He suggested that if XRP followed the pattern, a rebound could push prices to the $2.2 to $2.5 range, with the higher mark representing a new yearly high for XRP. However, investors should be cautious as this remains speculative and may not play out as expected.