XRP Holders Slip Back Into Loss as On-Chain Capitulation Returns

XRP holders are officially underwater again, according to new data from Glassnode, as the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) has fallen below the critical 1.00 level for the first time since 2022. This signals that the majority of on-chain XRP transactions are now being settled at a loss, marking a clear return of capitulation that is no longer speculative but embedded directly in blockchain data.

Glassnode’s latest readings show SOPR hovering around 0.96, a steep decline from roughly 1.16 recorded in July 2025. Analysts note that this pattern closely resembles XRP’s behavior during the 2021–2022 consolidation phase, when SOPR remained below 1.00 for extended periods. During that time, XRP became locked in a stagnant trading range that only resolved after months of grinding accumulation and exhaustion among sellers.

Cost Basis Break Triggers Capitulation

The decisive moment came when XRP slipped below its aggregate holder cost basis, meaning the average acquisition price across the network was breached. Glassnode describes this as both a psychological and structural breaking point. Once this level gave way, selling pressure intensified as holders began realizing losses en masse. Price action followed quickly, with XRP sliding from above $3 in mid-2025 to below $1.50 currently, mirroring the severity of the SOPR drawdown.

This dynamic reinforces the idea that panic has returned to the XRP market, but unlike emotional sell-offs driven by headlines, this one is measurable on-chain. The loss realization confirms that weak hands are exiting, often a necessary but painful phase in broader market resets.

Echoes of 2021–2022 and What Comes Next

The last time XRP experienced a comparable SOPR collapse was between September 2021 and May 2022, a period defined by prolonged sideways movement, repeated failed rebounds, and false bottoms. Only after that extended consolidation did a durable base begin to form. Analysts caution that unless SOPR can reclaim and hold above 1.00, XRP may remain stuck in this sub–cost basis zone, where rallies are sold into and confidence remains fragile.

For now, the takeaway is stark. Capitulation in XRP is no longer theoretical or anecdotal — it is visible, quantified, and priced in on-chain. Whether this phase ultimately sets the stage for recovery or leads to further stagnation will depend on how long the market remains trapped below its collective cost basis.