XRP struggles below key EMA lines despite stable ETF flow and OI

Ripple (XRP) still faces correction pressure, although the important support zone around $1.40 has temporarily held as of Wednesday. The recovery after last week’s sharp sell-off—when the price dropped to $1.12—quickly weakened, with XRP unable to break above the $1.54 level on Friday. This development keeps the price trapped within a narrow range, oscillating between the current support zone and the resistance barrier above.

Despite the presence of a short-term support area around $1.52, XRP declined more than 1.5% during the day. On the positive side, institutional investor inflows indicate risk appetite remains intact, while selling pressure from retail investors shows signs of cooling, opening up expectations for short-term market stabilization.

XRP ETF Inflows Remain Modest

Funds in US-listed XRP spot ETFs continued their positive trend, reaching $6.3 million on Monday, bringing total accumulated assets under management (AUM) to $1.23 billion. The net asset value (NAV) also increased to $1.04 billion. Notably, this is the fourth consecutive session of XRP ETFs recording inflows, demonstrating sustained interest from institutional investors.

XRP ETF Capital Flows | Source: SoSoValue Last week alone, XRP ETFs attracted approximately $39 million in net inflows through Friday. According to CoinShares, investment flows into XRP-related products averaged $63.1 million during the week, pushing the total AUM of this group of products to around $2.6 billion.

Digital Asset Flows | Source: CoinShares Contrasting with the spot market, the XRP derivatives market remains relatively subdued. Open interest (OI) in futures contracts hovered around $2.50 billion on Tuesday, slightly up from $2.47 billion the previous day. This indicates cautious sentiment among traders, who are mainly maintaining their current positions; a more stable increasing OI trend would be a positive signal for a bullish scenario if risk acceptance improves.

XRP Open Contract Volume | Source: CoinGlass Liquidation activity using leverage has also significantly decreased. On Tuesday, only about $1.38 million in long positions and $263,000 in short positions were liquidated. These figures are much lower than the previous Thursday, when macroeconomic pressures wiped out $59 million in longs and $11 million in shorts. The decline in liquidations creates a necessary pause in the market, offering investors an opportunity to consider increasing positions at lower prices, with hopes for short-term rebounds.

XRP Liquidation Data | Source: SoSoValue

Technical Outlook: Short-term Market Structure Assessment of XRP

XRP remains steady around the $1.40 support zone, but the technical picture shows limited optimism as the price continues trading below key exponential moving averages: the 50-day EMA at $1.81, the 100-day EMA at $2.00, and the 200-day EMA around $2.18. The downward-sloping EMAs reflect a prevailing bearish trend, which hampers any short-term recovery efforts.

Daily XRP/USDT Chart | Source: TradingView On the daily chart, the MACD remains below the signal line, prompting investors to stay cautious when seeking entry points. However, the red histogram bars are gradually narrowing, indicating weakening selling pressure. The RSI at 34 suggests weak buying interest, but the market has not yet entered oversold territory.

For XRP to extend its rebound toward Friday’s high of $1.54 and beyond the 50-day EMA near $1.81, the RSI needs to improve and move toward the mid-range.

Conversely, the downward trendline extending from the $3.66 peak continues to act as a “ceiling,” with notable resistance at $2.15. As long as the price remains below these key technical levels, the dominant trend remains bearish, with potential support levels at $1.25 (October 10 low) and the Friday low at $1.12.