Tom Lee warns that gold may have peaked. Can Bitcoin become the next focus of capital?

February 12 News, Fundstrat co-founder Tom Lee recently stated that after a strong rally, gold prices are approaching a cyclical high, and the market may soon see a new round of capital rotation. He believes that if risk aversion diminishes and risk appetite increases, some capital may reallocate to Bitcoin, sparking renewed discussions about “which has greater long-term value: gold or Bitcoin.”

Looking back over the past year, the global financial environment has remained volatile, with geopolitical tensions and inflation pressures recurring, making gold the primary safe-haven asset. Data shows that gold has increased by as much as 73% this year, attracting significant institutional and retail investment. In contrast, Bitcoin has fallen approximately 29% during the same period, under short-term pressure from regulatory uncertainties and profit-taking. This stark divergence has reshaped the global asset allocation landscape.

Tom Lee pointed out that historically, when an asset outperforms others significantly over a long period, it often signals that the latter part of the cycle is approaching. While the surge in gold reflects market confidence, it may also indicate that upward potential is narrowing. Once inflation expectations decline and interest rates stabilize, some funds may shift toward more resilient digital assets.

Despite short-term corrections, Bitcoin’s core logic as a scarce asset remains intact. Its fixed supply, decentralized structure, and global liquidity make it a long-term “digital store of value” with considerable potential. Tom Lee believes that if macroeconomic conditions improve and institutional risk appetite recovers, Bitcoin could attract renewed attention.

Going forward, investors should closely monitor central bank policy directions, inflation data, and capital flows within the crypto market. These factors will determine whether capital shifts from gold to Bitcoin and will shape asset performance for the remainder of 2026.