Will Bitcoin have a "red envelope market" during the 2026 Spring Festival? A review of the past 10 years of Bitcoin's Spring Festival price increases

As the Lunar New Year approaches, attention turns to the Bitcoin red envelope market. Over the past 10 years, there have been 9 bullish years with an average gain of 11%. The strongest rally occurred in 2018, with a 24.7% increase, driven by year-end bonuses and red envelopes entering the market. However, ARK Investment Management’s chief investment officer states that the market structure has changed, with ETFs absorbing 12% of supply and volatility dropping to 36%. Institutional rebalancing and increased allocations are altering the previous explosive growth pattern. ARK’s target for a bull market scenario in 2030 is $1.5 million.

Comprehensive Analysis of the 10-Year Lunar New Year Red Envelope Market Data

Looking back at Bitcoin’s performance during Lunar New Year over the past decade: In 2018 (2/15–2/20), it rose from $9,449 to $11,786, a 24.7% increase, marking the strongest Lunar New Year rally in history. In 2024 (2/8–2/14), it increased from $44,349 to $52,043, up 17.3%. In 2023 (1/20–1/29), it went from $21,071 to $23,960, up 13.7%. In 2022 (1/29–2/6), it rose from $37,716 to $42,656, a 13.1% gain.

In 2021 (2/10–2/16), it increased from $46,420 to $50,689, up 9.2%. In 2020 (1/23–1/29), from $8,682 to $9,449, an 8.8% rise. In 2017 (1/27–2/1), from $918 to $986, up 7.4%. In 2016 (2/6–2/14), from $374 to $404, an 8% increase. In 2019 (2/2–2/10), from $3,462 to $3,685, up 6.4%. In 2015 (2/18–2/24), from $234 to $238, a modest 1.7% increase.

The only exception was 2025 (2/9–2/17), when Bitcoin slightly declined from approximately $96,400 to $95,700, showing high-level consolidation and a slight overall decrease. This is the only year in the past decade where prices fell during the Lunar New Year period, likely due to profit-taking at all-time highs.

Regarding the reasons for these gains, one factor is that year-end bonuses received by employees often lead investors to increase Bitcoin holdings. Additionally, during the Lunar New Year holiday, friends and family may exchange red envelopes, and many recipients might choose to reinvest these funds, hoping for good luck in the new year. This cultural influence is significant in the Chinese-led Asian crypto markets, with similar effects possibly occurring during Lunar New Year celebrations in South Korea, Japan, and Southeast Asia.

Structural Changes in ETF Absorption of 12% Supply

ARK Invest research analyst and digital asset portfolio manager David Puell notes that Bitcoin is entering a new market phase. As spot ETFs and corporate treasury strategies rapidly absorb supply, the focus has shifted from whether investors believe in Bitcoin to how they participate—through which tools and how much allocation.

According to Puell, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have accumulated over $50 billion in net inflows in less than two years, becoming a key factor influencing Bitcoin’s price and supply-demand dynamics. Major players include BlackRock and Fidelity, which have increased market liquidity and accelerated the centralization of Bitcoin supply.

Furthermore, more publicly traded companies are adopting a digital asset treasury strategy, holding Bitcoin as a core asset on their balance sheets. Puell states that ETFs and corporate treasuries together have absorbed about 12% of Bitcoin’s total supply—far exceeding initial market expectations—and are expected to be the main drivers of price movement through 2025, with influence extending into 2026. This supply lock-up reduces circulating supply, providing price support in theory.

However, the market is not solely driven by buy-side activity. Puell highlights that early investors holding Bitcoin for over ten years tend to take profits when prices hit new highs, creating a counterbalance to institutional buying. This “early holder selling versus institutional buying” dynamic is a key feature of the 2025 market and contributes to Bitcoin’s high-level sideways movement.

Reduced Volatility to 36% and ARK’s $1.5 Million Target

Puell emphasizes that Bitcoin’s volatility is undergoing a structural shift. Compared to previous bull markets with 30% to 50% sharp corrections, since the 2022 lows, Bitcoin’s maximum drawdown has been around 36%, indicating a maturing market. He believes that lower volatility helps attract more conservative investors previously deterred by high risk and improves risk-adjusted returns. Increasing institutional strategies of “holding cash and adding on dips” also help reduce volatility and shorten recovery times.

This decrease in volatility has a dual effect on the Lunar New Year red envelope market. On the positive side, prices are more stable and less likely to experience sharp fluctuations that scare off new investors. On the negative side, the reduced explosive growth means year-end bonuses and red envelope funds may no longer push prices up by 20% as in previous years. The 2026 Lunar New Year may feature more moderate but more certain gains.

Long-term, ARK maintains its 2030 Bitcoin price forecasts: a bear market scenario around $300,000, a baseline scenario around $710,000, and a bull market scenario reaching as high as $1.5 million. Puell states that in bear and baseline scenarios, Bitcoin’s role as “digital gold” and a store of value is most critical; in the bull scenario, continued institutional expansion is the main driver of significant price increases.

Looking ahead, Puell emphasizes that ARK focuses more on long-term structural changes over five years or more rather than short-term price fluctuations. He believes Bitcoin’s successful transformation into a low-volatility, institutionally-held core asset could be as important as any specific price target. For the 2026 Lunar New Year, the red envelope market may no longer be a “speculative profit opportunity,” but rather a “long-term entry point for strategic allocation.”