Bitcoin NUPL drops back into the "Hope/Fear" zone: 0.18 reading signals a shift in market sentiment

On February 14, data shows that on-chain metrics indicate Bitcoin’s Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) has recently fallen sharply to 0.18, sparking market attention to sentiment shifts and price trends. On-chain analysis firm Glassnode noted that this level falls within its “Hope/Fear” zone, suggesting the network remains predominantly profitable overall, but its advantage has significantly weakened.

NUPL is used to measure the unrealized profit and loss status of all network investors. It is calculated by comparing the price at which each Bitcoin was last moved to the current spot price: a higher value indicates unrealized gains, while a lower value indicates unrealized losses. After aggregating this difference across the entire network, dividing by the market capitalization reflects the proportion of net profit or loss among holders.

Data shows that during the upward phases from 2024 to 2025, NUPL rose above 0.5, indicating that unrealized profits exceeded half of the market cap. Subsequently, as prices retraced, the indicator fell back to the 0.25–0.5 range, with two instances of technical correction. However, the latest decline has been more persistent, ultimately pushing NUPL down to 0.18, marking a new low for this cycle.

Analysts believe this zone often corresponds to a phase of hesitation and defense: rebounds tend to face selling pressure, and when confidence weakens, downward volatility can be amplified. Historically, during the 2022 bear market, NUPL also continued to decline from this region and even briefly fell below zero, entering an “extreme fear” state, when most investors were in unrealized losses.

Currently, the reading indicates that the market has not fully capitulated, but sentiment has clearly weakened. If subsequent capital inflows and demand do not recover, the indicator could remain under pressure; if buying interest returns, stabilization within this zone is possible. Changes in NUPL provide a key reference for observing Bitcoin’s medium-term sentiment and price momentum.