Author: Chain Research Society
Is 2028 the Diamond Bottom for BTC?
2026 is undoubtedly the worst start to the year for Bitcoin in nearly a decade.
From the black opening on January 1st to now, BTC has fallen from $109K to $65K, a 24% decline year-to-date. ETH fared even worse, dropping 34%. This is the worst start to the year for BTC since 2016.
But this time is different; this crash has no clear reason.
1. A drop without reason is the deepest fear
In 2018, a 73% decline was due to the ICO bubble bursting, with many altcoins collapsing to zero. In 2022, a 77% drop was caused by Luna’s collapse, Three Arrows Capital, and FTX’s bankruptcy. Every crash, you know the cause.
Each time, you know where the enemy is and how long it takes to rebuild trust. But what about 2026?
• No exchange failures
• No algorithmic stablecoin collapses
• No hacking attacks
• No country banning BTC
It just fell. Fortune magazine said: the worst start to the year in history, but without a clear catalyst for the crash.
A crash with a reason usually leads to a rebound after the negative sentiment is exhausted; but a reasonless fall feels like slow bleeding. When everyone is asking why it’s falling but can’t find an answer, panic exponentially amplifies.
2. Have the bottom-fishing indicators finally appeared?
Currently, quantitative market indicators show that the market has entered a vacuum zone of irrational selling.
According to the latest data from February 25, our bottom-fishing model’s current signal is only 1/5, far from the true bottom (data source: fuckbtc).
❌ MVRV < 1.0
❌ Price ≤ 200-week moving average
❌ Price
Disclaimer: The information on this page may come from third parties and does not represent the views or opinions of Gate. The content displayed on this page is for reference only and does not constitute any financial, investment, or legal advice. Gate does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information and shall not be liable for any losses arising from the use of this information. Virtual asset investments carry high risks and are subject to significant price volatility. You may lose all of your invested principal. Please fully understand the relevant risks and make prudent decisions based on your own financial situation and risk tolerance. For details, please refer to
Disclaimer.
Related Articles
Crypto ETFs Sustain Rally With $462 Million for Bitcoin and $169 Million for Ether
Crypto exchange-traded funds (ETFs) extended their momentum on Wednesday as bitcoin funds logged a third consecutive day of inflows. Ether, XRP, and solana ETFs also recorded gains, signaling broad institutional demand across major digital assets.
Bitcoin ETFs Log Third Straight Inflow Day
Coinpedia10m ago
Data: 145.5 BTC transferred from an anonymous address, worth approximately 10.35 million USD
ChainCatcher reports that, according to Arkham data, at 06:13, 145.5 BTC (worth approximately $10.35 million) was transferred from one anonymous address (starting with bc1q053n...) to another anonymous address (starting with bc1qmuyh...).
GateNews33m ago
Fed Chair Nominee Kevin Warsh Calls Bitcoin an Important Asset for Policymakers
Bitcoin’s policy outlook brightens as the White House formally nominates Kevin Warsh to lead the Federal Reserve, elevating a former governor who has praised bitcoin as a meaningful financial signal and transformative software innovation.
White House Formally Nominates Kevin Warsh as Federal Rese
Coinpedia1h ago
CleanSpark Sells 553 BTC for $36.6M in February as Miners Dump Bitcoin
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) miners faced a dual dynamic in February: cash-flow optimization through asset sales alongside aggressive capacity expansion to support AI-enabled data-center workloads. CleanSpark reported selling 553 BTC from its February production for roughly $36.6 million while mining 568 B
CryptoBreaking1h ago
