創造出比特幣預測模型「S2F（Stock-to-Flow Ratio）」的量化分析師 PlanB，曾因預測「比特幣會在 2021 年底前站上 10 萬美元」而聲名大噪，後也因預言失準而飽受質疑，如今他再度拋出震撼市場的比特幣價格展望，認為在當前 2024 至 2028 年的市場週期中，比特幣的平均價格有望達到 50 萬美元。
這項預測來自 PlanB 最新發布的 S2F 模型。儘管比特幣近期價格波動劇烈，目前仍徘徊在約 67,000 美元附近，但從模型所對應的歷史區間來看，PlanB 認為，目前是買進比特幣的絕佳時機。
比特幣價格展望。資料來源：PlanB
什麼是 S2F 模型？
「S2F 模型」是將「資產庫存量（供應量）除以流量（年產量）」來量化資產的稀缺性，藉以判斷資產價格走勢的技術指標。由於比特幣每 4 年會經歷一次區塊獎勵減半，新增供應量隨之減半。依照 S2F 模型的邏輯，當供給增速持續下降、市場稀缺性提升，勢必會為幣價帶來強大的推升動能。
在最新圖表中，S2F 的預測曲線在 2024 年減半後出現明顯跳升，指向約 50 萬美元的價格區間。
深入拆解 PlanB 這次的最新展望，可以歸納出 3 大核心論點：
**1. 歷史預測曾多次命中：**PlanB 強調，S2F 模型在過去數輪週期中曾給出具有參考價值的價格區間。他指出，自己在 2015 年開始買入比特幣時，價格僅約 400 美元；而在 2019 年比特幣跌至 4,000 美元以下時，模型曾預測未來可能上漲至 55,000 美元，而後續行情確實也如他所料，成功站上該目標價位。
**2. 市場仍未過熱：**從技術面來看，PlanB 亦認為比特幣目前並未進入過熱階段。圖表中的藍色與綠色點代表相對強弱指標（RSI，用來衡量資產是否超買或超賣），顯示目前市場仍處於相對健康區間。依照模型推算，目前約 67,000 美元的價格，可能只是邁向本輪週期平均價的起跑點，仍處於被低估的區間。
**3. 投資無絕對，需留意模型盲點：**不過，PlanB 也承認，S2F 模型並非萬無一失。事實上，S2F 模型過去也時常面臨外界質疑，批評者認為該模型過度聚焦於「供給面」的變化，卻忽略了「需求面」的市場動態。
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