Iran Launches Medium-Range Missiles at US-UK Bases, Missing Target but Reaching 4,000 Kilometers Range "Double Intelligence Estimates"

Iran confirmed on March 21 that it launched two medium-range ballistic missiles at Diego Garcia Island, a U.S.-British joint military base in the Indian Ocean. The missiles, with a range of over 4,000 kilometers, mark Iran’s first operational strike capability outside the Middle East, though both missiles missed their targets.
(Background: Trump “temporarily refrained from seizing Iran’s oil”: further blockade of the Hormuz Strait would lead to 20 times more strikes, EU releases oil reserves as response)
(Additional context: Iran threatens to push oil prices above $200, and attacked two commercial ships in the Hormuz Strait)

Iran officially confirmed on March 21 that it launched two medium-range ballistic missiles at Diego Garcia Island in the central Indian Ocean, suspected to be Khorramshahr-4. This base is the most important joint military outpost for the U.S. and UK in the Indian Ocean, over 4,000 km from Iran’s mainland. This is Iran’s first use of medium-range ballistic missiles in combat and the first time its strike range extends beyond the Middle East.

Both missiles ultimately missed their targets; one failed mid-flight, and according to U.S. sources, the other was intercepted by an SM-3 missile launched from a U.S. destroyer. However, the U.S. has not officially confirmed whether the interception was successful.

Overturning the Previous “2,000 km Limit”

The most significant political implication of this attack is that Iran has overturned Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi’s public statement. Araghchi previously said Iran “deliberately” limited missile range to 2,000 km to send a message of “de-escalation” to the outside world.

By hitting targets 4,000 km away, Iran effectively declared that limit no longer exists. The official statement from Iran was strong, emphasizing that the missile range far exceeds previous expectations and demonstrating its deterrence capability against the U.S. and allies.

The immediate trigger for the attack was UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s approval for the U.S. to use Diego Garcia to strike Iran’s missile sites. On the same day, the U.S. and Israel jointly attacked Iran’s Natanz nuclear facility. Trump later criticized the UK for being “very slow” to approve, indicating ongoing disagreements among allies.

Oil Prices Hit $119, Bitcoin Holds Above $70,000

Following the news, Brent crude oil surged past $119, with market fears of supply disruptions through the Hormuz Strait intensifying. The U.S. is currently considering plans to seize Hark Island, which accounts for about 90% of Iran’s oil exports. Capturing the island could cut off Iran’s revenue and force it to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

Bitcoin remains between $70,000 and $71,000, not moving in tandem with oil prices. Looking back, when the war broke out on February 28, BTC dropped to around $64,000 but recovered to above $70,000 within half a month.