Xinda Futures: Rising Energy Prices Constrain Rate Expectations, Gold Under Short-Term Pressure

Gate News reports that on March 22, Cinda Futures released a research report stating that the current core driver of gold trends is the upward movement of energy prices constraining interest rate expectations. As the Middle East conflict persists, crude oil prices remain high, with Brent crude futures previously stable above $100, significantly increasing market concerns about inflation stickiness. Against this backdrop, the market’s outlook on the inflation decline path has become more cautious, weakening expectations for rate cuts, which has led to a phase of dollar strengthening and suppressed gold prices. Meanwhile, although recent employment data has been weak, inflation expectations driven by energy are offsetting this bullish factor, making gold’s financial attributes temporarily bearish. On the policy front, the market generally expects the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged for the second consecutive meeting, but the key lies in the forward guidance on the interest rate path, especially Powell’s assessment of inflation and the impact of geopolitical conflicts, which will directly influence market expectations for subsequent easing measures.