Latest on the US-Iran War: Pentagon ground forces prepare to attack, Saudi military base hit by missiles, probability of Strait of Hormuz reopening is down to 24%.

The US-Iran war has entered its fifth week, and the situation continues to escalate. A US military base in Saudi Arabia was attacked by Iranian missiles and drones, resulting in at least 15 soldiers being injured. The Pentagon is currently drafting plans for ground troop operations in the coming weeks, targeting Iran’s high-enriched uranium stockpile. The Strait of Hormuz has now turned into a “toll booth,” with ships from seven friendly countries being allowed passage, while others remain blocked.
(Background: Reuters: US intelligence confirms “only destroyed one-third of Iran’s missiles,” does the massive arsenal still pose a threat?)
(Background: Trump calls for “bombing around until the target is completed” urging Iran to surrender, over 200 vessels in the Gulf, ECB warns that the dollar’s safe-haven status is failing)

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• Pentagon prepares four “final strike” plans
• Strait of Hormuz becomes a toll booth
• Crypto market suppressed by war

The Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia was simultaneously attacked by Iran with six ballistic missiles and 29 drones on March 28 local time, causing a KC-135 aerial refueling tanker to catch fire and sustain damage, resulting in at least 15 US soldiers being injured, five of whom are in serious condition. This is the largest scale of attack on US forces since the onset of the US-Iran conflict.

Meanwhile, the Bushehr nuclear power plant has been bombed for the third time in 10 days. Rafael Grossi, Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), expressed “deep concern,” calling for all parties to exercise maximum military restraint to prevent the risk of a nuclear accident from spiraling out of control.

Iranian nuclear scientist Mohammad Reza Kia and his wife were killed in the airstrike, and outside analysts generally speculate that this targeted elimination of nuclear personnel was carried out by either Israel or US forces.

Pentagon prepares four “final strike” plans

According to a confidential military assessment report obtained by Axios, the Pentagon is currently advancing four ground troop operation plans as options for a “final strike” against Iran. These include:

• Kharg Island: Invasion or blockade of Iran’s main oil export hub
• Larak Island: Seize and control the strategic island
• Abu Musa Island and two nearby islets: Deploy ground forces to secure the strait passage
• Seizing tankers passing eastward: Block and seize Iranian oil export vessels

The most attention is on ground operations deep into enemy territory, aimed at directly controlling Iran’s high-enriched uranium stockpile. The White House is evaluating the deployment of at least 10,000 additional combat troops, including about 3,000 from the 82nd Airborne Division and two Marine units. President Trump has yet to make a decision, and White House officials continue to refer to ground troop operations as “hypothetical scenarios.”

US Central Command simultaneously announced the combat results of “Operation Epic Fury” after one month of warfare, reporting strikes on over 11,000 targets, over 9,000 combat flights executed, destroying more than 150 Iranian naval vessels, with all 11 active warships in the Gulf of Oman sunk; the volume of Iranian missile and drone launches has decreased by 70% to 85% compared to the initial stage of the conflict.

The Iranian Revolutionary Guard responded strongly, warning that if the US and Israel continue to attack Iran’s industrial system, the scale of subsequent retaliation will “exceed their imagination.” The Iranian president also emphasized in a public declaration that Iran will not strike first but will inevitably retaliate, pointing out that the US’s contradictory words and actions are the fundamental reason why Iran cannot trust them.

Strait of Hormuz becomes a toll booth

Iran has effectively transformed the Strait of Hormuz into a “diplomatic toll booth,” selectively allowing ships to pass based on bilateral relations. Currently, a total of seven countries have been granted passage, including China, Russia, India, Iraq, Pakistan, Malaysia, and Thailand.

For countries not on the “friendly list,” the strait remains in a state of effective blockade. The probability of “normal navigation in the Strait of Hormuz by the end of April” on Polymarket has dropped to 24%, a significant decline from 77% on March 10, with a market trading volume of $1.34 million, indicating that funds betting on a prolonged blockade are continuing to flow in.

Crypto market suppressed by war

After news of the attack on the Saudi base broke, the crypto market immediately declined, with Bitcoin falling from $67,500 to around $66,500, and the total market liquidation scale over the past 24 hours was approximately $125 million.

The macroeconomic outlook is similarly bleak. CME FedWatch shows that the market’s pricing probability for a Federal Reserve interest rate hike in 2026 has risen to 48.6%, nearly equal to the probability of a rate cut, indicating that traders are reassessing the long-term impact of war-induced inflation on monetary policy.