Why is Bitcoin rising today? Trump plans to declare the end of the war, and the short covering potential is being strengthened.

April 2, the U.S. media outlet Politico, citing people familiar with the matter, reported that U.S. President Trump plans to announce in a nationwide address that Iran’s military targets have been “fully achieved,” with the war now nearing its end. Both Iran and the U.S. are holding negotiations via intermediaries regarding a ceasefire and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Data from K33 Research shows that the short positions in Bitcoin ETFs have risen to 9,012 at the peak, and the potential for short covering further strengthens the technical upside momentum.

Iran Ceasefire Talks: The Macro Catalyst Driving Bitcoin’s Rise Today

Politico reported that Trump plans to announce that “near-term military objectives have been achieved,” and plans to transfer subsequent security responsibilities for shipping issues in the Strait of Hormuz to NATO allies and Gulf countries. Axios confirmed the same day that three U.S. officials said the U.S. and Iran are discussing ceasefire conditions, and Vice President J.D. Vance, no later than Tuesday, is still conveying information through intermediaries: if the U.S. side’s demands are met, the U.S. is willing to accept a ceasefire.

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian also made a public statement that Iran is willing to end the conflict if the U.S. stops its attacks and provides assurances that the war will not be restarted. Trump then said on Truth Social that when the Strait of Hormuz is “open, free, and accessible,” it will be considered.

The mechanism of how the ceasefire expectation directly affects Bitcoin is clear: currently, the Strait of Hormuz is constrained by Iran, and international oil prices have already broken through $100 per barrel. If a ceasefire is reached and navigation resumes, the sharp drop in oil prices will ease inflationary pressure, and the market’s willingness to allocate capital to risk assets will rebound accordingly—forming the macro driver behind Bitcoin’s rise today.

The Potential for Short Covering: Technical Trigger Conditions Revealed by K33 Data

K33 Research’s head of research, Vetle Lunde, said that the current environment matches structural characteristics typical of the bottom-formation stage, mainly across three dimensions:

ETF Shorts Hit Historical Extremes: Bitcoin short positions built via ProShares BITI and SBIT surged 22% to 9,012 coins. Historically, this has only happened twice, and concentrated shorts imply potential large-scale covering momentum.

Funding Rates Stay Negative in a Row: The annualized 30-day funding rate has been negative for 32 consecutive days. If it continues for another two weeks, it will exceed the record for the deepest negative funding rates in the bearish market of November to December 2022

The Gap Between Spot and Realized Price Is Narrowing Significantly: CryptoQuant data shows that the difference between the two has narrowed from 120% at the end of 2024 to about 21%, indicating the market is returning to the mean from an overvalued phase

Lunde said that to meet the standard for the historically accumulated bottom zone, the Bitcoin price still needs to fall by about 20% more, but the current structure has already formed the conditions for a short squeeze rally.

The Easter Liquidity Effect and the Broader Market Backdrop

K33 also noted that Bitcoin is currently facing multiple pressures: liquidity weakness brought by the Easter holiday, uncertainty surrounding the Iran conflict, and recent warnings about quantum threats. Since 2019, Bitcoin’s trading volume has systematically been below the annual average in the seven days before and after Easter, and volatility has followed a similar pattern. This means that bullish moves around the holiday period need to be driven with lower trading volume, which relatively amplifies the range for volatility.

As of the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at about $68,600. The just-concluded Q1 2026 has been Bitcoin’s worst quarterly performance in the past eight years, down about 52% from historical highs in cumulative terms. A Fidelity analyst said this is “a sign of market maturity.”

FAQ

What are the direct triggers for why Bitcoin is up today?

The main triggers on April 2 are progress in Iran ceasefire talks: Politico reported that Trump plans to declare military objectives achieved, and Axios confirmed that the U.S. and Iran are discussing a ceasefire agreement via intermediaries. The rapid decline in the geopolitical risk premium is driving a rebound in market risk sentiment, which is the core catalyst behind Bitcoin’s rise today.

How will the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz affect Bitcoin?

Currently, the Strait of Hormuz is constrained by Iran, pushing oil prices above $100 per barrel. If a ceasefire is reached and navigation is restored, the drop in oil prices will ease inflationary pressure, reduce the need for the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates high, and increase the willingness of capital to flow into risk assets—meaning Bitcoin as a major risk asset will directly benefit.

What market-structure signals do current on-chain data show?

K33 Research and CryptoQuant data show that Bitcoin ETF shorts are at historical extremes, the funding rate has been negative for 32 straight days, and the gap between spot and realized prices has narrowed to 21%. Overall, this matches the structural characteristics typical of the bottom-formation stage. Analysts also pointed out that if historical full bottom zones are reached, there is still about 20% downside potential; the above data is descriptive analysis and does not constitute investment advice.