Brent crude spot premium hits $34, the Hormuz crisis reveals the real pressure on oil prices

Gate News, the global oil market has shown a notable split. The spread between Brent crude spot and futures prices has widened to about $34, highlighting that geopolitical conflicts’ impact on energy supply is intensifying. Data shows that the benchmark price for physical crude oil trading has risen to $141.37 per barrel, the highest level since 2008, while Brent crude futures are still hovering around $107—clear divergence between the two.

This spread reflects the real pressure facing the current spot market. Due to tight supply, demand for immediately delivered crude far exceeds available inventories, causing spot prices to keep climbing. By contrast, the futures market is driven more by expectations and sentiment and has not fully priced in the impact of supply disruptions. Chevron CEO Mike Wirth noted that current futures prices are built on insufficient information and have not yet reflected the systemic shock caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Energy Aspects founder Amrita Sen also said that, to a certain extent, financial markets have obscured the true degree of supply tightness.

Geopolitical developments have become the key variable. The Strait of Hormuz accounts for about 20% of global crude oil transport. It has been closed for more than a month, tanker transport volumes have fallen by about 95%, and this has reduced daily production in the Gulf region by at least 10 million barrels. This supply gap directly drives up the spot premium and further increases instability in global energy markets.

Meanwhile, Trump has issued inconsistent signals regarding the strait issue. On the one hand, he said the conflict is nearing an end and implied that the shipping route would reopen; on the other hand, he did not provide a clear timeline. This policy uncertainty further disrupts market expectations, intensifying oil price volatility.

The current oil price structure shows the market is in a critical stage of supply-demand imbalance and expectation-driven games. If geopolitical risks persist, the spot premium may remain elevated; if transport resumes, the spread may gradually narrow. Near-term trends in the energy market still heavily depend on changes in the situation in the Middle East.