Crypto Crystal Ball 2024: Are NFTs Dead or Reborn?

Analysts predict that NFTs will rebound sharply in 2024, but this does not mean that old projects will surge again.

Written by: Decrypt

Compiled by: Jonathan

By all accounts, cryptocurrencies are at a crossroads, and across the markets, legal and regulatory landscape, and Web3 startup ecosystem, there is little disagreement among industry leaders that 2024 could go down as one of the most important years for crypto yet. .

Whether these events will ultimately propel the industry out of winter and reach new heights, or jeopardize it, remains another question.

But don’t panic, dear reader, while nothing is certain about the future - especially in the crypto space - Decrypt has spoken to analysts in the finance, policy, and NFT fields to get a peek behind the scenes.

After exploring the impact of spot Bitcoin ETFs, how Bitcoin and TradFi will eventually merge, and when U.S. regulation will be clear, we take a look at whether NFTs will rebound in 2024.

Few asset classes have fared worse than NFTs during the enduring cryptocurrency bear market, and even with a slight increase in NFT trading volume recently, the industry is still down 93% from its crazy highs in early 2022.

A sign of the depth of the decline: In most circles, even the word “NFT” itself has become a dirty word. If the cryptocurrency market does eventually rebound, will NFTs be able to ride the wave?

Pedro Herrera, director of research at DappRadar, believes NFTs will see a major resurgence in 2024, but he’s not talking about the profile picture (PFP) market.

“The collectibles we’ve become accustomed to in 2021, like Bored Apes and CryptoPunks, have slowed down.”

“People are starting to understand the real concepts behind NFTs, which is proving ownership, authenticity, etc.,” Herrera told Decrypt.

Herrera believes that the technology behind NFTs has finally matured to the point where it can begin to realize its full potential, which goes far beyond facilitating the exchange of JPEGs of cartoon animals.

He points to developments in areas such as the tokenization of real-world assets (“Imagine your mortgage being an NFT!”), gaming, and the Metaverse—areas that experienced a collapse in hype last year, but which Herrera expects to grow with high-quality AR and VR. The market will rebound across the board with the proliferation of hardware - such as the upcoming Apple Vision Pro.

“We’re starting to see a lot of use cases beyond simple collectibles,” Herrera said. “I think this trend will continue to be strong in 2024.”

Analysts want to clarify that this does not mean that all PFPs are dead, and a handful of blue-chip NFT series such as Pudgy Penguins, Bored Ape Yacht Club, and CryptoPunks have successfully developed past collectibles into digital assets through first-mover advantage or clever strategies. A strong IP brand with value in both the physical and physical fields.

Herrera believes that these few collections should now be able to grow and develop as the NFT industry matures, but the vast majority of NFT collectibles may miss out as the NFT industry emerges from the crypto winter and enters the next phase. Good opportunity.

“Sadly, 90 to 95 percent of the collections we saw during the NFT bull market are not coming back,” he said.