EMC Labs Bitcoin Weekly Observation: Accumulate Power and Wait for Interest Rate Breakthrough

Original author: Shang2046

The market, project, currency, and other information, opinions, and judgments mentioned in this report are for reference only and do not constitute any investment advice.

BTC chips continue to accumulate between 66,000 and 70,000, and the market may only need a clear interest rate cut expectation to break through.

Market week

Last week, BTC approached its all-time high of $73,000, reaching a peak of $71,974. It ultimately ended the week with a quick adjustment from the high point, closing above $69,000. The weekly volatility was only 6.5%, with a gain of 2.8%.

The failure to reach a high is still closely related to US economic data. The US non-farm data released on June 8th showed that employment exceeded expectations, adding more uncertainty to the interest rate cut expectations. However, it must be pointed out that the unexpected increase in the US unemployment rate also shows that the signal of the US economic recession is still clear. There are also reports that most of the new jobs in the US are taken by immigrants and illegal immigrants, and the actual data in the US is not optimistic.

Regardless, the market is still waiting for the other shoe to drop. The Federal Reserve’s interest rate meeting on June 12th will provide further signals. We believe there is still a high probability of a rate cut before September.

Before this, the encryption market may react 1-2 months in advance. On June 4th, Fidelity ETF, which has always been ranked second in terms of capital inflows, saw a single-day inflow of 800 million US dollars, which also indirectly indicated certain intentions of mainstream institutions in the United States.

Supply and Demand Structure

Last week we pointed out that through on-chain data, the range of $60,000 to $73,000 has become the largest accumulation range of BTC chips, totaling about 3 million coins. Currently, this accumulation range has been further clarified as $66,000 to $70,000. In this range, 2.43 million chips have been accumulated, which can be viewed as a relatively strong support position.

On June 4th, the net inflow of US ETFs was $887 million, setting the second largest single-day net inflow record since January; last week, the overall net inflow of US ETFs was $1.829 billion, also the largest net inflow week since March. The net inflow of Hong Kong BTC spot ETF last week was about $42 million, with a total of $290 million, similar to the scale at the end of April.

In terms of the inflow of USD stablecoins, the relatively stable state of the past month has continued, with a net inflow of USD 270 million. It is still far from the super high net inflows in March and April. Overall, the current stock of stablecoins is USD 150.5 billion, not far from the USD 162 billion in the last bull market. If the net inflow of US ETFs of about USD 15 billion is taken into account, overall it has surpassed the last bull market.

But for this bull market to achieve a real breakthrough, stablecoins still need to be further increased.

As of May 26th, the holdings of centralized exchanges amounted to 2.31 million coins, a decrease of 20,000 coins compared to last week. At the same time, the holdings of short-term investors within 5 months amounted to 3.32 million coins, an increase of 10,000 coins compared to last week; while the holdings of long-term investors holding over 5 months amounted to 14.10 million coins, an increase of 14,000 coins. Overall, the market is showing a continuous accumulation of chips, and the actions of short-term and long-term investors are consistent.

In terms of market cost, the cost for short-term investors has further risen to $63,500, with a floating profit of about 9%. This profit is at a relatively low level in the bull market, and there is very limited short-term selling pressure. On the other hand, the average holdings cost of the US spot ETF has also slightly increased to $58,287, with a profit margin of about 19%.

In terms of buying volume on centralized exchanges, it increased from $3.6 billion two weeks ago to $5.6 billion.

EMC BTC Cycle Indicator

eMerge data engine shows that the market is in a bull market acceleration phase, and the EMC BTC Cycle indicator strength is 0.63.

About EMC Labs

EMC Labs (Emerging Laboratories) was founded by cryptocurrency investors and data scientists in April 2023. It focuses on blockchain industry research and crypto secondary market investment, with industry foresight, insights, and data mining as its core competitiveness, dedicated to participating in the thriving blockchain industry through research and investment, and promoting the well-being of humanity through blockchain and encryption asset.

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