Welcome the largest weekly capital inflow of the year, BTC hits a historical high, encryption Bull Market starts the second half (11.4~11.10)

Author: 0xWeilan

The market, projects, currencies, etc. mentioned in this report, as well as the opinions and judgments, are for reference only and do not constitute any investment advice.

Market Summary

This week is the most important week of 2024. Both volume and price are rising, and BTC has returned to the rising trend line after an 8-month adjustment, initiating the second half of the bull market.

This week, BTC started at 68736.40 and closed at 80428.92 US dollars, with a big rise of 17.01% throughout the week, and the trading volume significantly increased. In October, BTC made significant progress after taking over the 200-day moving average. This week, it rose sharply again, completely breaking free from the pressure of the ‘new high consolidation zone’ and surging above the bull-bear dividing line (the blue line in the chart, roughly around 75000 US dollars).

With the influx of large-scale capital, these two technological breakthroughs mark the complete start of the second half of the Bull Market.

This week, the biggest driving force for the market’s pump comes from the conclusion of the U.S. election.

Trump was elected the 47th President of the United States, and his ‘tax cuts’ and ‘deregulation’ are considered to significantly enhance the profitability of American companies. Coupled with the increase in Liquidity during the easing cycle, the U.S. stock market is likely to continue to pump in the medium term.

Federal Reserve and Economic Data

After the US election, the postponed US Federal Reserve announced another 25 basis point cut in the Interest Rate. The Federal Reserve also stated that it will gradually lower the Interest Rate to a neutral level. Based on market performance, all parties in the trading have fully defined the pricing of the US economy’s ‘soft landing’. At the same time, due to Trump’s victory, his economic policies are expected to push up inflation to a certain extent, making it difficult for the Interest Rate to fall below 2%. The Federal Reserve no longer mentions the 2% inflation target in its speech. In 2025, the market is highly likely to experience higher inflation, which will have a certain impact on the space for interest rate cuts.

Earlier, in our research report, we mentioned that the current market is trading around whether it will have a soft landing or a hard landing. However, with the approaching election, the ‘Trump trade’ has become mainstream, and after the election this week, the US stock market has risen sharply after a moderate adjustment. The Nasdaq, Dow Jones, and S&P 500 recorded gains of 5.74%, 4.61%, and 4.66% respectively. The US Dollar Index rose another 0.63% to a high of 104.9569%, while London Gold fell 1.85% for the week, and US bond yields stopped rising.

We believe that with the Republican Party’s big victory, a new consensus is forming, and the market is very optimistic about the future development of the U.S. stock market. Traders are learning to bet on assets with strong performance in a low-tax, low-interest-rate financial environment, facing a possible slight increase in inflation.

Stablecoin and ETF

The strong performance of the US stock market has provided strong support for the influx of funds into BTC ETF.

The crypto market saw a significant inflow of funds this week, totaling $65.04 billion, marking the largest inflow week of 2024. Among them, BTC ETF saw an inflow of $17.28 billion, while the Stable Coin channel saw an inflow of $47.76 billion.

The substantial influx of stablecoin channel funds has enabled BTC to pump fiercely in the Altcoin market. ETH, which was heavily affected by fear, uncertainty and doubt (FUD), recorded a weekly rise of 29.52%. Meanwhile, the MEME Coin Doge, with the Musk concept, surged by 83.49%.

Although BTC has recorded a huge increase, it has been adjusting for 8 months. Currently, the short-term floating profit level is around 16%. Therefore, although the price has reached a new all-time high, the dumping is still far below the high set in March. Considering the fierce influx of market funds and the general optimism about the future market, the BTC price may continue to rise without being suppressed by technical indicators.

Cycle Indicator

EMC BTC Cycle Metrics indicator is 0.875, the market is in a rising period, showing a vigorous rise state.

END

EMC Labs (Emerging Labs) was founded by encryption asset investors and data scientists in April 2023. It focuses on Block chain industry research and Crypto Secondary Market investment, with industry foresight, insight, and data mining as its core competitiveness, and is committed to participating in the thriving Block chain industry through research and investment, promoting the well-being of humanity through Block chain and encryption assets.

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