Delphi Digital 2025 Outlook: If history repeats itself, BTC will break above $175,000

Original author: Delphi Digital

Compilation | Odaily Planet Daily ( @OdailyChina)*

Translator | Azuma (@azuma_eth)

*Editor’s Note: On December 11th, the well-known research institution Delphi Digital released a market outlook report for the cryptocurrency industry in 2025. This article is the first part of the report, mainly outlining Delphi Digital’s analysis of the trend and upward potential of Bitcoin in 2015.

Delphi Digital mentioned that if the historical trend repeats itself, Bitcoin will rise to about $175,000 in this round, and there is even a chance to rise to $190,000-$200,000 in the short term.

*The following is the original content from Delphi Digital, translated by Odaily. *

At the end of 2022, we outlined the reasons why the bear market has bottomed out.

15 months ago, we began to express our confidence in the upcoming bull market cycle more frankly.

In last year’s annual report, we also predicted that BTC would break through new highs in the fourth quarter of 2024.

Although from a technical perspective, BTC had already reached a new high at the end of March this year due to the hype of ETF, the recent breakthrough is more in line with our original expectations.

When releasing the annual report last year, there are only over 3 months left until the next Bitcoin halving. We have observed from historical data that BTC tends to rise in the weeks before halving and enters consolidation after halving, laying the foundation for larger gains in the future.

Fast forward to today, the real trend of BTC is basically in line with this path.

Over the past period of time, the sharp rise in BTC has put the market in a very favorable position to move towards a greater space.

We also reiterated our view that the halving of Bitcoin is not the key catalyst for a bull market - they just happen to coincide with the periodic rise of BTC.

As shown in the following figure, this was the situation at that time.

The current situation is like this.

The trend of BTC is highly consistent with the cycle forecast of Delphi Digital, which is almost a miracle.

Readers who have been reading Delphi Digital research reports for a long time may know why this is happening - this is not a miracle.

The market is driven by momentum, which is fully reflected in BTC and other cryptocurrencies.

Every historical high of BTC coincides with the ‘Monthly RSI breaking through 70’. In previous bull markets, the market often didn’t run out of steam until the indicator broke through 90.

If this historical precedent is repeated, BTC must rise to about $175,000 within this cycle in order to reach the corresponding RSI level (if it really starts to rise like crazy, it may even reach $190,000 to $200,000). The premise of this prediction is that the top of the current cycle will experience a period of accelerated rise similar to most previous cycles.

From the perspective of volatility, the current volatility of BTC is also far below the “1-2 standard deviation” volatility usually indicating cyclical tops.

In an industry that is developing so rapidly, it is difficult to see the forest through the trees. We all understand that volatility is a double-edged sword, which is why time horizon is important.

If you need more evidence, here’s an interesting fact. Even if you bought BTC at the cyclical top in November 2021, if you can hold on, its performance will still outperform all other major asset classes today.

**Bitcoin breaking through its all-time high is not just an attractive headline, but also the ultimate driving force for the “risk appetite” in the cryptocurrency market.

“Price is the ultimate driving force behind attention, capital flow, and on-chain activity”.

In the last cycle, it was not until the price of Bitcoin thoroughly broke through the previous high that retail investors poured in on a large scale. From the surge in Google search volume and news coverage of ‘Bitcoin’ to the growth in Coinbase’s retail trading revenue, this trend can be observed. Investor confidence and risk appetite often rise as Bitcoin ‘skyrockets’ and breaks through the previous high.

Price drives increased attention, which in turn accelerates FOMO and capital inflows.

The flow trend of BTC ETF this year has clearly shown this trend.

The iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) has the third highest inflows of all ETFs this year, surpassed only by the two largest S&P 500 ETFs, which together have assets 20 times the size of IBIT (approximately $1.1 trillion).

Price is the ultimate driving force, and compared to traditional asset classes, Bitcoin has been the top performer for two consecutive years.

BTC has not only set a new record high against the US dollar, but also set a new record high against NDX (NASDAQ 100 Index), which has itself risen nearly 30% this year.

BTC has also set a new high against SPX (S&P 500 index)… and SPX is expected to achieve its best performance in the past 30 years this year.

BTC has also reached a new high compared to gold.

We have always said that one day, the stigma of BTC will be eliminated. One day, not getting involved in BTC will be the biggest risk for investors and institutions. In our opinion, that day has come.

Mocking Bitcoin is no longer cool. This cycle will solidify BTC’s position as a macro asset, one that cannot be ignored anymore.

The current market value of BTC is about $2 trillion.

This is a very large number. If Bitcoin were a publicly traded company, BTC would be the sixth most valuable asset in the world.

Not long ago, many people still thought that a $100,000 BTC was just a pipe dream. Now, the timeline of social media is full of such expectations.

• When BTC flipped Saudi Aramco at $91150.
• When the price of 109650 US dollars, BTC will flip Amazon; When BTC reaches $107,280, it will flip Google;
• When the price of BTC reaches 156700 US dollars, it will flip Microsoft;
• When BTC reaches $170,900, it will flip Apple;
• When the price of BTC reaches 179,680 US dollars, it will flip Nvidia…

Bitcoin has now grown to a size that deserves attention, but it has not yet grown to a size that lacks sufficient room for development.

At the time of writing this article:

• The market value of BTC still accounts for only 11% of the total market value of MAG 7 (AAPL, NVDA, MSFT, AMZN, GOOGL, META, TSLA) ;
• The market value of BTC is less than 3% of the total market value of US stocks, and 1.5% of the total market value of global stocks;
• The total market value of BTC still only accounts for 5% of the outstanding public debt of the United States, less than 0.7% of the total global debt (public debt + private debt)
• The funds held by the US monetary market fund are three times the market value of BTC;
• BTC’s market value is still only equivalent to 15% of the total global foreign exchange reserve assets. Assuming that global central banks reallocate 5% of their gold reserves to BTC, this would bring more than $150 billion in additional purchasing power, equivalent to three times the total net inflows of IBIT this year;
• Household net worth is at an all-time high (over $160 trillion) - over $40 trillion higher than the pre-pandemic peak - driven primarily by rising home prices and a booming stock market. This figure is 80 times the current market value of Bitcoin.

The key is that there are still a lot of deep pockets of funds available for BTC and the cryptocurrency market to tap into. When people are confident in the rise of the cryptocurrency market, all of these will become potential demand.

Investors need to achieve an annual return of 10-15% to hedge against the loss of real purchasing power, as the Federal Reserve and other central banks push for a 5-7% devaluation of their currencies each year.

That’s why investors are increasingly turning their attention to high-growth industries, as they are the best places to seek above-average returns.

We believe that as the accumulated positives continue to outweigh the potential negatives, investors will be more willing to take on a certain level of risk in pursuit of higher returns.