CITIC Securities: It will still take time from promoting Russian-Ukrainian negotiations to achieving a ceasefire protocol

Jinshi data news on February 24, CITIC Securities research report stated that since the call between the US and Russian leaders, the negotiations for a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine have accelerated. Regarding the prospects of the negotiations, we expect that it will take time from pushing the negotiations to reaching a ceasefire protocol. The complexity of the negotiation process should not be underestimated. Even if Russia and Ukraine achieve a ceasefire and marginal repair of US-Russian relations, Russia’s strategic shift towards the East will still be a long-term process. In terms of potential impacts, in the short term in Europe, with the acceleration of Russia-Ukraine negotiations, the easing of political turmoil, and relatively restrained tariff policies, the political and diplomatic factors affecting the economy and assets of the Eurozone are expected to see short-term recovery. However, in the long term, the unresolved issue of weak industrial competitiveness in Europe and the uncertain energy landscape between Russia and Europe may affect their long-term prospects. In terms of commodities, if Russia and Ukraine achieve a ceasefire, Russian metal and grain exports are expected to recover, leading to supply changes, but there are still significant uncertainties regarding the recovery of energy exports.