Gate Research: 2025-02-02 Web3 On-Chain Insights

Summary

• According to the historical bull market pullback data, the overall bitcoin pullback is relatively small, and the market demand for bitcoin is stable.
• Affected by a series of policies and events, the price of bitcoin has rebounded sharply, and the net realized profit and loss has turned negative, and some holders are in a state of loss.
• The Bitcoin spot price has fallen below the on-chain cost of $92,000 for short-term holders, implying greater selling pressure in the market or weaker investor confidence.
• $BERA The market popularity of the token peaked during the mainnet launch and then quickly declined.
• Since the launch of the Berachain mainnet, its total value locked (TVL) has continued to climb.
• The number of active wallets on the Berachain chain hit a peak of 1.22 million and then pulled back quickly, reflecting the exit of speculative funds.
• $HONEY The supply of the token is constantly rising, reflecting the rising demand for it.

On-chain data summary

Bitcoin Key Metrics

Bitcoin Bull Pullback Decline

Based on the experience of the past three Bitcoin bull market cycles, we can roughly divide the bull market into two phases: the “initial ascending phase” and the “main ascending phase”. In the early stages of a bull market, the market tends to see a significant rally, but it is also accompanied by sharp price swings. In crypto history, the price of Bitcoin has seen a sharp correction of more than 40% in two bull runs, and in the 2011-2013 bull market, Bitcoin soared all the way from a low price of less than $1, during which it experienced a sharp correction of more than 60%, but these corrections prompted the bottom to accumulate, so that the price eventually rebounded to hundreds of dollars, an increase of hundreds of times; In the bull market of 2018-2021, Bitcoin plummeted from a high of $10,000 to about $5,000, a drop of more than 50%, but then the price of Bitcoin rose all the way to $60,000, an increase of about 12 times. This reminds investors to be vigilant during periods of market upswing and pay attention to short-term risk management.

In the current cycle (2022 and beyond), although Bitcoin has also seen multiple corrections, the overall magnitude is relatively small, with a maximum correction of only 16%, indicating that the market demand for Bitcoin remains solid. As can be seen in the chart below, the current bull market is still in the initial ascending stage, which usually means that the market energy is accumulating and has not yet entered the main ascending stage of full concentration of funds. In the future, with the help of spot ETFs and macro asset recognition, the main ascending stage is expected to open, and Bitcoin may reach a new high. 【1】

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Bitcoin Net Realized P&L

According to Glassnode on-chain data, Bitcoin’s net realized profit and loss peaked significantly in early December, and although it has since fallen, it has remained in a positive range overall, indicating that market participants are generally profitable. However, at the end of February, with Trump’s announcement of tariffs, the uncertainty of the global economic situation, and the $1.5 billion hack on the Bybit exchange, the price of Bitcoin pulled back sharply, causing the net realized profit and loss to turn negative to about -$707 million, with some holders in the red. This reflects some selling pressure in the market. 【2】

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Bitcoin short-term holders on-chain base cost range

According to Glassnode on-chain data, the spot price has fallen below the on-chain cost of $92,000 for short-term holders (investors with less than 155 days), putting most short-term investors at risk of loss. Previously, the price of Bitcoin sat between the high band and the on-chain cost for short-term holders most of the time, and the market was relatively stable during this time. However, the price of Bitcoin fell below the on-chain cost for short-term holders at the end of February, which could mean greater selling pressure in the market or weakening investor confidence. In the future, if the bullish defense line cannot be stabilized, the price may fall further, and the market may enter a volatile consolidation stage, investors need to remain cautious. 【3】

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Dynamic analysis of popular tokens

Overview of popular tokens

$BERA — $BERA token is Berachain’s native gas token and is used to pay transaction fees. Berachain is an innovative Layer 1 blockchain that uses a proof-of-liquidity (PoL) consensus mechanism, the Berachain mainnet will be officially launched on February 6, 2025, Berachain adopts a unique three-token model - $BERA: Gas tokens, which are used to pay transaction fees; $BGT: Governance tokens, which are used for network governance; $HONEY: Stablecoin, the native stablecoin within the Berachain ecosystem.

On-chain activity

Trading volume peaked on February 6 with a total volume of $2.035 billion on the mainnet. And on February 21st$BERA token’s trading volume increased significantly, mainly due to the price rally seen the previous day$BERA The token’s price increased by about 13.7% on the day, a price rally that sparked investor sentiment, coupled with Coinbase’s announcement of an increase in support for Berachain, which led to a significant increase in trading volume. 【4】

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$BERA Token & Berachain Market Popularity Changes

The market popularity of $BERA token and Berachain peaked during the mainnet launch in early February, but then quickly retreated. On February 6, $BERA’s public opinion participation peaked at 14.97 million, but as of February 28, it has dropped sharply by 90.3% to 1.11 million; Berachain’s market sentiment participation peaked at 16.67 million on February 9 before falling 99.9% to 10,000. This rapid cooling may be related to the fading of speculative sentiment in the market, with many investors actively participating in the discussion in the early days of the mainnet launch, but with the positive realization and the lack of further catalysts, the market heat naturally retreats, showing a typical short-term hype effect. 【5】【6】

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On-chain data insights and potential assessment

Berachain TVL

Since the launch of Berachain’s mainnet, its total value locked (TVL) has continued to rise, and as of February 28, it has exceeded $3.05 billion, setting a milestone in the development of the ecosystem. This data not only reflects the trust that funds have in their underlying technology, but also directly strengthens the value of the $BERA token. As the core asset of gas fee settlement, liquidity incentives and governance in the ecosystem, the growth of TVL has significantly boosted the on-chain demand and scarcity of the $BERA token, and a large number of users have pledged assets to participate in the Proof-of-Liquidity (PoL) mechanism, further locking the token circulation. 【7】

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Berachain Daily Transactions

After the launch of the Berachain mainnet, the number of daily transactions on the chain stabilized in the range of 1 million and 2.5 million, which not only reflects the resilience of the network’s basic activity, but also builds a value buffer for $BERA tokens. Compared with the explosive growth of TVL, the stable trading volume may reflect that the ecosystem has moved away from early speculative fluctuations and shifted to a sustainable stage driven by real demand, such as users’ frequent participation in DEX transactions, cross-chain asset transfers, and pledge mining, etc., which continue to consume $BERA tokens as gas fees, forming a stable deflationary base. 【8】

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Number of active Berachain wallets

The number of active wallets on the Berachain chain hit a peak of 1.22 million on February 9 and then pulled back rapidly, reflecting a phased cooling of market heat. Although the decline in active addresses may raise concerns about user stickiness, the data shows that TVL is still at a high level of $3 billion, indicating that whale users and long-term stakers have not withdrawn, and the ecological fundamentals have not been shaken. The large decline in this active wallet is associated with the exit of speculative funds, which in turn accelerates the optimization of the structure of $BERA token holders. 【9】

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$HONEY Daily Supply of Tokens

$HONEY tokens are stable assets within the ecosystem, $HONEY tokens are minted by overcollateralizing $BERA tokens or other assets, which means that when the market demand for $HONEY tokens increases, more $BERA tokens will be locked within the protocol, reducing the supply of $BERA tokens in circulation, potentially pushing up the $BERA token price. As you can see from the chart, the supply of $HONEY tokens is constantly rising, which may reflect the rising demand for them. Since $HONEY tokens are minted by overcollateralizing $BERA tokens or other assets, this means that as more $HONEY tokens are minted, the supply of $BERA tokens in the market will decrease further. This contraction in supply may have a supportive effect on the price of the $BERA token, especially if demand is stable or growing. 【10】

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Summary

In February 2025, the crypto market as a whole faced correction pressure from the price of Bitcoin, but from historical data, this pullback is more like a healthy correction phase in a bull market than a signal that the market has turned bearish across the board. In the short term, Bitcoin has recently fallen below the cost price of short-term holders, which means that some holders may face selling pressure and increased risk. However, because this selling pressure can often promote low price absorption during the bull market cycle, in the long run, it will help the market to further consolidate the bottom and accumulate funds and confidence for the opening of the main bull market in the future. The launch of the Berachain mainnet and the steady growth of its ecosystem provide additional positive signals for $BERA tokens. While paying attention to short-term market volatility, investors should also look at market trends from a long-term perspective, seize potential buying opportunities in healthy pullbacks, and pay attention to the steady development of ecological projects, so as to achieve greater value enhancement when the bull market turning point comes.
Resources:

1. Glassnode, [https://studio.glassnode.com/charts/48973bed-09bb-4957-71d4-c6405735bb38?s=1316564678&u=1740873600&utm_campaign=woc_04_2025&utm_medium=insights_woc&utm_source=gn_insights&zoom=](https://studio.glassnode.com/charts/48973bed-09bb-4957-71d4-c6405735bb38? s=1316564678&u=1740873600&utm_campaign=woc_04_2025&utm_medium=insights_woc&utm_source=gn_insights&zoom=)
2. Glassnode,[https://studio.glassnode.com/charts/indicators.NetRealizedProfitLoss?a=BTC&chartStyle=column&s=1732982400&u=1740758399&zoom=](https:// studio.glassnode.com/charts/indicators. NetRealizedProfitLoss?a=BTC&chartStyle=column&s=1732982400&u=1740758399&zoom=)
3. Glassnode, [https://studio.glassnode.com/charts/a2c0052b-64f2-4384-71d3-0fff4d6f3777?s=1732982400&u=1740758399&utm_campaign=woc_07_2025&utm_medium=insights_woc&utm_source=gn_insights&zoom=](https://studio.glassnode.com/charts/a2c0052b-64f2-4384-71d3-0fff4d6f3777? s=1732982400&u=1740758399&utm_campaign=woc_07_2025&utm_medium=insights_woc&utm_source=gn_insights&zoom=)
4. Defillama,[https://defillama.com/chain/Berachain?fees=false&appRevenue=false&stables=false&chainTokenVolume=true&tvl=false](https://defillama.com/ chain/Berachain?fees=false&appRevenue=false&stables=false&chainTokenVolume=true&tvl=false)
5. Lunarcrush,https://lunarcrush.com/discover/bera?interval=1m
6. Lunarcrush,[https://lunarcrush.com/discover/$bera?metric=interactions&interval=1m&scale=absolute](https://lunarcrush.com/discover/$bera? metric=interactions&interval=1m&scale=absolute)
7. Defillama,https://defillama.com/chain/Berachain?fees=false
8. Dune,https://dune.com/queries/4809201/7971023?bera_tx_date_t6c1ea=Day
9. Dune,https://dune.com/queries/4809201/7971025?bera_tx_date_t6c1ea=Day
10. Dune,https://dune.com/queries/4809274/7971110

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