ChainCatcher message, Fitch Ratings stated in its latest Global Economic Outlook that it is expected that the global economy will slow down to 2.3% rise this year, far below trend levels, and below 2.9% in 2024. At the same time, Fitch Ratings lowered its forecast for the US economy from 2.1% in December last year to 1.7%, and lowered its 2026 rise forecast from 1.7% to 1.5%.
Fitch Ratings says that the tariff increase will lead to higher prices for American consumers, reduce real wages, increase business costs, and the surge in policy uncertainty will impact corporate investment. It is estimated that the tariff shock will cause a 1% increase in short-term inflation in the United States, and it is believed that the Fed will postpone further easing policies until the fourth quarter of 2025. It is now expected that the Fed will only cut interest rates once this year, but as the economy slows and tariff levels stabilize, it is expected to cut interest rates three more times in 2026.
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