Fitch Ratings expects global economic yükseliş to slow to 2.3%, with the US economic yükseliş forecast lowered to 1.7%. Tariff increases will lead to pump in consumer prices in the US, decreasing real wages, increasing business costs, and adding policy uncertainty affecting business investment. The tariff impact is expected to raise US inflation by 1%, and the Fed is believed to postpone easing policy until the fourth quarter of 2025. The Fed is expected to cut rates once this year and three more times in 2026.

Credit Suisse analysts believe that US tariffs may have a faster impact on the economy than inflation, so the European Central Bank will continue to cut interest rates in the short term. It is expected that the European Central Bank will cut interest rates in April and June. Investors are still uncertain about the interest rate decision in April, with a 57% chance of a rate cut.

Rothschild Wealth Management expects the Federal Reserve to stand pat in June, with inflation continuing above the 2% target and US tariffs persistently pushing up prices. Surveys show inflation expectations are rising, narrowing room for interest rate cuts, and the Fed is expected to cut rates in June, September, and the first quarter of 2026.

Jinshi Data March 14th news, UK January GDP data fell short of expectations, the swap market expects that by December 2025, the UK Merkez Bankası will cumulatively cut interest rates by 56 baz points, previously expected to cut by 54 baz points. The UK Merkez Bankası will announce the interest rate decision next Thursday.

Trump threatens to impose 200% tariffs on EU alcoholic products, causing market turmoil; US stocks collectively decline, BTC falls below 80,000 US dollars; Gold rises nearly 1.8%, approaching 3000 US dollars. US inflation pressure eased, but Trump's trade policy still affects investor sentiment, and the Fed's rate cut expectations remain high.

Foreks verilerine göre, 13 Mart'ta Barclays'in son gelişmeleri dikkate alarak Fed'in bu yıl faizleri iki kez düşüreceği tahmin ediliyor - biri Haziran ayında, diğeri Eylül ayında. Bu, piyasanın geçen aydan beri beklediği en son değişikliğe uymaktadır. Ancak mevcut federal fon vadeli işlemleriyle karşılaştırıldığında, tahminleri hala biraz düşük fiyatlandırılmış görünüyor. Trader'lar, Fed'in bu yıl faizleri yaklaşık 70 baz puan düşüreceğini tahmin ediyorlar; bu haftanın başlarında beklenen faiz indirimi miktarı yaklaşık 84 baz puan civarındaydı.

ABD'nin Şubat ayı enflasyon oranı düştü, ancak Nomura Securities ekonomistleri Fed'in faiz indirimine gitmeyeceğini düşünüyor. Çekirdek PCE enflasyonu beklentilerin üzerinde güçlüydü, bu da Nomura'nın tahminlerini %0.32'ye yükseltmesine neden oldu. Güçlü CPI verilerinin Fed'in faiz indirimine gitmeyeceğini desteklediklerini ve enflasyon baskısının muhtemelen şahin bir politikaya yol açabileceğini belirttiler.

10 Data, March 12th News, OPEC's data released on Wednesday showed that Kazakhstan accounted for more than half of the total OPEC+ oil production increase in February, falling behind its production cut commitment. According to the production cut protocol reached by OPEC+, Kazakhstan has consistently exceeded its quota of 1.468 million barrels per day. Data shows that Kazakhstan's oil production in February was 1.767 million barrels per day, higher than January's 1.57 million barrels. Previously, the country had pledged to cut production and offset overproduction.

Golden Data March 12th, according to the US bank analysts in a report, the Bank of England Merkez Bankası is unlikely to indicate that the pace of future rate cuts will be faster at the next decision on March 20th. The US bank said:"In a situation of increased uncertainty and high reliance on data, we expect a gradual and cautious guidance." LSEG's data shows that the market expects a 92% chance that the Bank of England Merkez Bankası will maintain the interest rate at 4.50% on March 20th. US bank analysts expect the Bank of England Merkez Bankası to cut interest rates three times in 2025, once in 2026, and eventually reduce the interest rate to 3.5%.

Odaily planet daily news According to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics will announce the February tüketici fiyat endeksi (CPI) report at 20:30 tonight. Economists predict that after a significant pump in January, inflation in the United States last month may still be high, further proving that the Fed's progress in suppressing prices has stalled. Cooling inflation data may enhance traders' bets on a Fed rate cut, with the currency markets currently expecting three 25 basis point rate cuts this year, compared to two rate cuts fully priced in a week ago, market expectations have become more dovish. (Jinshi)

Mitsubishi UFJ Bank's senior market manager believes that if the economy continues to improve, the Japanese Merkez Bankası may raise the Benchmark interest rate to 2%. He expects Japan's inflation rate to remain above 2%, with import costs pumping due to global trade disruptions. He believes that raising interest rates will not have a significant adverse impact and expects the Fed to not cut interest rates this year, as the US economy is performing well.

Fed Governor Waller strongly opposes a rate cut this month, citing insufficient inflation data and uncertainty from Trump policies. The long-term outlook remains positive, with an expected rate cut this year and next. He places more emphasis on market indicators and believes Trump's policies will not have a significant impact on long-term inflation.

Altın Finans, Federal Rezerv Direktörü Waller, tüm gümrük vergilerinin tüketicilere yansıtılmayacağını belirtti; Fed'in şu anki politikası hala kısıtlayıcı niteliktedir, Fed, olumlu ve olumsuz nedenlerle faiz indirebilir, düşüş beklentilerinin hala iyi olduğuna inanıyor. Waller stated that he did not think it was necessary to cut interest rates in March, and the Fed may cut interest rates after March; the median expectation of two interest rate cuts in 2025 still remains reasonable.

Trump's adjustment of transatlantic relations has triggered a 500 billion euro spending change, and the European Central Bank's interest rate cut again, which means it is unlikely to cut interest rates again in April, uplifting the euro. The market still does not fully understand the severity of the changes, and German bond yields have soared to their highest level since 1990. Deutsche Bank says this is an unprecedented upheaval, and fast money and flexible investors are the first to react.

Morgan Stanley's chief stock strategist predicts that the European Central Bank will cut interest rates by 25 basis points, which is expected to be welcomed, believing that European stock market trading prices are still below fair value. It is expected that the European Central Bank will cut interest rates again in the middle of the year, optimistic about controlled inflation in Europe. Services sector inflation is temporarily soaring, and the interest rate may drop to 2% by the end of 2025, low interest rates are beneficial to the European stock market, especially consumer spending-driven stocks.

Fitch rating analyst Charles Seville said that as the threat of tariffs intensifies, the Eurozone economy has fallen into a quagmire, and the European Central Bank will continue to lower interest rates this year. Given the economic weakness and inflation slowdown faced by the policymakers of the European Central Bank, today's move to lower the key interest rate is not surprising. Although demand may be boosted by increased German defense spending, the sluggish economy and the threat of US tariffs will prompt the European Central Bank to further cut interest rates in 2025.

Golden data on March 3rd, according to CME's 'Fed Watch': The probability of the Fed maintaining the interest rate unchanged in March is 93%, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 7%. The probability of maintaining the current interest rate unchanged until May is 68%, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 30.1%, and the cumulative probability of a 50 basis point rate cut is 1.9%.

Galaxy Securities pointed out that in 2025, the monetary policy orientation will shift to moderately loose, with a policy interest rate reduction of 30-40BP throughout the year or cumulatively, guiding the 5-year LPR downward by 40-60BP. The interest rate reduction window may open after the second quarter when the Fed is expected to cut interest rates, and the reserve requirement ratio reduction and reverse repurchase will release liquidity to support credit expansion. It is predicted that the fluctuation range of the 10-year government bond yield in 2025 will be 1.5%-1.9%, and 1.64% may be a reasonable level when the Central Bank reduces it by 40BP throughout the year. The exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB may fluctuate around 7.3.

Gold News reported that Musk said if we don't cut spending, the United States will go bankrupt.

İngiltere Merkez Bankası faiz indirimi beklenenden fazla olabilir, sterlin darbe alabilir. Stratejistler İngiltere Merkez Bankası'nın faiz indirimini Mayıs ayına kadar 125 baz puan erteleyebileceğini tahmin ediyorlar, piyasa beklentisi toplam indirimin daha büyük olacağı yönünde. Yatırımcılar hala sterline iyimser bakıyor, ancak Trump'un gümrük vergisi planının belirsizliği ve ekonomik verilerin performansı sterlin döviz kuru üzerinde negatif baskı oluşturabilir.

Odaily Planet Daily News According to the release of the US presidential election vote results in the evening, traders reduced their bets on the Fed's interest rate cuts next year. Faiz Oranı futures traders continue to bet that the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points this week and in December, but now it is expected that the Fed may stop cutting rates after cutting rates twice by 25 basis points in the first half of 2025, and the target range for the federal funds rate will be lowered.

Gold Finance reported that traders continue to expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in November and December.

Federal Reserve's most favored inflation indicator, core PCE price index, will be announced tonight at eight-thirty, and the data is expected to paint a mixed picture. The Fed's interest rate cut is in a "tricky position", and the gold and silver exchange is facing a critical juncture. The data may trigger a huge wave in the market tonight, so investors should pay attention to the related risks. For more forward-looking information, please click

Odaily Planet Daily News, European Central Bank board member Holzmann said that the current data is not sufficient to prove that a 50 basis point rate cut in December is reasonable, and some colleagues may push for 12

Gold Finance reported that Daly, the Federal Reserve, stated that the Federal Reserve will continue to adjust its policies to adapt to the economic situation; it is expected to continue to cut interest rates in the future; there is no reason to stop the interest rate cuts; para politikası is definitely still tight; I don't want to see further deterioration in the labor market; the recent interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve only passed by a narrow margin, and I strongly supported a 50 baz point interest rate cut at that time.

Citigroup economists expect that the South Korean Central Bank will cut interest rates faster and more aggressively to address the economic yükseliş weakness, possibly lowering rates by 25 baz puan in January, April, and July 2025, and possibly cutting twice more in 2026, bringing the policy Faiz Oranı down to 2.00%. The South Korean Central Bank had previously lowered the Benchmark Faiz Oranı to 3.25% on October 11.

Gold Ten Data 17 October News, UBS Global Wealth Management states that although the European Central Bank may further cut interest rates after reducing 25 basis points on Thursday, the euro may still strengthen. This is because the lower global interest rate environment and the continued resilience of the US economy should benefit currencies such as the euro that are sensitive to the economy. The euro against the US dollar should perform well in the coming months. The European Central Bank may cut interest rates again in December, and then may 'lower interest rates at every meeting before June next year, deposit interest rates will reach 2% before the European Central Bank presses the pause button.'

Odaily planet news The slightly higher-than-expected increase in retail sales in the US in September supported the view that the economy remained strong yükseliş in the third quarter. US retail sales recorded a 0.4% monthly growth rate in September, while the unadjusted increase in August was 0.1%. Signs of economic recovery may not prevent the Fed from cutting interest rates again next month, but they will strengthen the 25 basis points cut.

Avrupa Merkez Bankası yetkilileri, önümüzdeki aylarda faiz indirimi dahil gevşek para politikalarını sürdürmeye devam edeceklerini belirtti; 2025 yılında %2 enflasyon hedefinin gerçekleşeceği tahmin ediliyor; ancak önlemlerde sonradan değişiklik yapılmayacak, sürekliliği sağlamak için bütün süreç garanti altına alınmalıdır. Aynı zamanda, hizmet sektörü enflasyonu hala yüksek, ücret artışları da güçlü ve Euro bölgesi ekonomisi zayıf büyüme görünümüne sahip, bu da Ekim ayındaki faiz indirimi kararını desteklemeye eğilimli.

Fed's Bostic said that after the 50 baz puan rate cut in September, it is expected to cut another 25 baz puan this year! A summary of recent speeches by Fed officials on "hawkish" and "dovish" attitudes in one picture.

Odaily Planet Daily News, Goldman Sachs said that we expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points continuously between November 2024 and June 2025, and the final interest rate range will reach 3.25%-3.5%. The European Central Bank is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in October, and then continuously cut interest rates by 25 basis points until the policy interest rate reaches in June 2025.

Gold Ten Data Oct. 17th News, Goldman Sachs said that we expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points continuously between November 2024 and June 2025, and the final interest rate range will reach 3.25%-3.5%; It is expected that the European Central Bank will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in October, and then continuously cut interest rates by 25 basis points until the policy interest rate reaches 2% in June 2025.

Odaily Planet Daily News, the governor of Merkez Bankası in Indonesia stated that the change in expectations for the Fed's interest rate cut is a matter of time, but this will only affect the yield, and it is still expected that the Fed will cut interest rates twice more this year, by 25 baz puan each time; it is expected that the Fed may lower interest rates 3-4 times next year, each time by 25 baz puan.

Odaily planet daily news, Bostonic of the Federal Reserve said, "I expect to cut interest rates by 50 baz puan in September, and then cut them by 25 again this year."

Gold Finance reported that former US President Trump said that the president should be able to communicate with the Federal Reserve chairman; he has the right to comment on the trend of interest rates; Federal Reserve Chairman Powell has cut interest rates too much.

Odaily星球日报讯 美联储戴利表示，九月份的降息是适度的para politikası调整，最近的通胀读数仅略高于

10月15日金十数据，野村证券研究分析师在一份报告中表示，英国最新的劳动力市场数据表明，工资 yükseliş 正在放缓，这加大了英国 Merkez Bankası 11月份降息的可能性。私营部门的正常工资 yükseliş 是英国 Merkez Bankası 的一个关键指标。8月份的月度 yükseliş 仅为0.22%，是7个月来的最低月度 yükseliş 率，并显示出明显的下降趋势。数据显示，市场预期英国 Merkez Bankası 11月降息25个 baz puan 的概率为83%。

BlackRock's research department has upgraded its rating on UK government bonds from neutral to overweight, expecting the Bank of England to cut interest rates faster than market expectations, believing that the current UK bond yields provide attractive returns. This view is similar to that of Goldman Sachs and Legal&General Investment Management strategists. Despite the market's high expectations, UK bonds still lag behind similar products, as the market believes that the Bank of England's aggressiveness is not as strong as the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank.

ABD bankası, Avrupa Merkez Bankası'nın faiz indirme kararının Euro üzerinde büyük bir etkisi olmayabileceğini ancak gelecekteki kararların dikkatli sinyallerinin Euro'ya destek olabileceğini belirtti. Piyasa faiz indirme beklentisini zaten sindirdi, Euro Merkez Bankası toplantısına hafif bir tepki verdi. Bununla birlikte, Euro Döviz Kuru hala ABD Merkez Bankası ve ABD durumundan etkilenebilir ve Kasım ayındaki ABD başkanlık seçimi ve jeopolitik riskler altında düşebilir.

Odaily Planet Daily News, Dutch international forex analyst Turner said in a report that the US dollar has held onto its recent gains and is approaching a two-month high against the Döviz sepeti. After investors significantly lowered their expectations for a US interest rate cut, the US dollar should remain strong, but there is limited room for further appreciation. Data shows that the US currency market expects the Fed's last two meetings this year to cut interest rates by less than 50.

ABD PPI ve CPI'nin yükselmesi, Fed'in önümüzdeki ay faizleri 25 baz puan indirmesini destekliyor. Tahminlere göre, Eylül ayında çekirdek PCE aylık yükselişi %0.21 olacak, 12 aylık PCE ise %2.6'ya düşecek, bu da Fed'in faiz indirimlerine devam etmesini sağlayacak.

Geçen ay Federal Rezerv, baz puan Faiz Oranını 50 baz puan düşürerek 'dikkatli' bir adım attı ve muhtemelen daha fazla ayarlama gerektiriyor; politikanın belirlenmiş bir yolu yok ve 'dikkatli, veriye dayalı bir yaklaşım' benimsenmesi gerekiyor. Boston Fed Başkanı Collins'in yakın zamandaki konuşmasında bahsettiği budur.

Gold Finance reported that Paul, an analyst at Kaili Macro,

Fed, daha büyük bir faiz indiriminin ekonomik görünüme yönelik endişe ve hızlı faiz indirimi sinyali olarak görülmemesi gerektiğine karar verdi; para politikası kısıtlayıcı niteliği sınırlıdır; iletişim, ekonomik gelişmeleri ve politikaya olan etkilerini netleştirmek için önemlidir; komitenin politika kararları önceden belirlenmiş bir yol değildir; bilanço daraltma süreci bir süre daha devam edebilir.

BlockBeats haberleri, 10 Ekim

HSBC's Lenny Jin stated that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's rate cut may be a signal of its "policy easing", and the New Zealand dollar will face more and more unfavorable factors, including the repricing of the Federal Reserve and the escalation of geopolitical aspects. It is expected that the New Zealand dollar will perform poorly against safe-haven currencies (especially the US dollar) in the short term.

Citigroup expects the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to cut interest rates by 75 basis points in November, higher than the previous forecast of 50 basis points. With rising unemployment, "we believe that the monetary policy committee will further loosen policy at the November policy meeting," Josh

Stunaras said the euro area's inflation rate could reach the 2% target in the first half of 2025, prompting policymakers to cut the interest rate at a faster pace than previously expected. He supports two more rate cuts of 25 basis points each this year. The euro area's inflation rate fell to 1.8% in September, the first time it has been below the European Central Bank's target since 2021. Almost no member of the Governing Council fundamentally opposes the recent policy path of the European Central Bank.

BlockBeats haberleri, 9 Ekim'de Bridgewater Associates kurucusu Ray Dalio,

Fransız bankası, piyasa beklentilerini aşan ABD işgücü piyasası raporunun, Kasım ayında faiz indiriminin 25 baz puan olacağını ve 50 baz puan olmayacağını net bir şekilde desteklediğini belirtti. Gelecek haftanın TÜFE raporunun bu görüşü değiştirmesi muhtemel değil, çünkü genel enflasyon oranındaki düşüş tamamen yakıt fiyatlarından kaynaklanmalı ve çekirdek enflasyon oranının hala yüksek kalması bekleniyor.