#美联储降息预期及影响 Looking back at the Fed's operational history over the past 30 years, I can't help but feel the uniqueness of the current interest rate cut expectations. The continuous rate hikes in 1994, the rate cut cycle after the internet bubble burst in 2000, and the zero interest rate policy following the financial crisis in 2008, each profoundly affected market direction. Now, interest rate futures indicate that the market expects four rate cuts of 25 basis points by January next year, which reminds me of the aggressive rate cuts in 2001. At that time, the tech stock bubble had just burst, and the Fed lowered the interest rate from 6.5% to 1.75% in just one year.

Morgan Stanley predicts three more rate cuts this year, a viewpoint that seems familiar. In 2007, when the subprime mortgage crisis began to emerge, Wall Street also predicted rate cuts of a similar magnitude. However, the actual situation far exceeded expectations and ultimately evolved into unprecedented quantitative easing.

These historical experiences tell us that the Fed's policy shift often comes faster and more intensely than expected. But we must also be vigilant, as excessive easing may lay the groundwork for inflation risks. The lessons of the 1970s stagflation crisis are still vivid. In the current economic environment, the Fed needs to find a balance between stimulating growth and controlling inflation.

For the crypto market, liquidity easing generally benefits risk assets. However, we must also recognize that compared to previous cycles, the maturity and interconnection of the current crypto ecosystem have undergone a qualitative leap. Simply applying historical patterns may lead to unexpected results. We should remain cautiously optimistic, closely monitor policy trends, and place greater emphasis on the intrinsic value creation of projects.