CryptoWorldYouth

#美联储降息预期 Seeing Hamak's words, my first reaction was that a familiar scene has replayed. The collapse of expectations for a rate cut at the end of 2022 essentially stemmed from this divergence—markets betting that the central bank would soften, only to be repeatedly slapped in the face by hawkish voices. Now, a similar tug-of-war is happening within the Federal Reserve, just with roles reversed: previously dovish members pushed for rate cuts, now hawks are steadfastly defending high interest rates.
Inflation, this beast, is more stubborn than imagined. After three rate cuts, the market cheere

#预测市场 Seeing Brian Armstrong's discussion on prediction markets, my mind immediately flashed back to several cycles I've witnessed over the years.
The DAO incident in 2016 is a prime example. At that time, no one truly understood how decentralized governance would work, and a technical vulnerability directly destroyed a project valued in the tens of millions. If there had been a genuine prediction market back then, what would the real bets of market participants have reflected? They would likely have sniffed out the risks earlier than the confident analyses in the media. Because liars would f

#比特币价格预测 Seeing this forecast of $86,000-$92,000, a few past memories flashed through my mind. The crazy surge at the end of 2017, the long bear market in 2018, and the recovery in 2020 — each time, analysts drew various ranges, but the market's true rhythm has always been controlled by deeper forces.
Wintermute's assessment actually reflects a very real current situation: we are in a typical year-end adjustment period. Tax considerations, portfolio rebalancing, profit-taking—these seemingly technical terms are actually driven by institutional investors doing year-end accounting. This reminds

#美联储政策 Seeing the interest rate swap indicating a further 3 basis points relaxation by the end of 2026, my mind flashes back to those moments ten years ago. The "811 Capital Account Reform" in 2015, the policy shift at the end of 2018, the liquidity flood after the 2020 pandemic—each Federal Reserve policy signal has stirred waves in the crypto market, though back then our sensitivity to these data points was far less than it is now.
Three basis points may seem negligible, but the implications behind them are worth pondering. Moving from the high interest rate environment at the end of last y

#预测市场 Seeing CZ's year-end Q&A, I recall several cycles we've gone through over the years. The prediction market sector was mentioned, and honestly, it reminded me of how many projects were overhyped during the 2017 bull run. Back then, some people confidently claimed that a certain direction was the future. But what happened? After the big waves, only a few survived.
But this time is different. CZ made it very clear—next year’s US election will be a litmus test, and the true key to victory lies in long-term competition. I've heard this kind of statement countless times: short-term events cre

#比特币价格走势 Seeing this prediction, a familiar feeling arises in my mind. The high of $126,080, the retest at $84,000, RSI dropping below 30 into oversold territory... I’ve seen these data points before, more than once.
Since 2023, this rebound pattern after extreme overselling has occurred five times, each time unfolding into a bullish trend. The rhythm of history is always similar, but never exactly the same. Rising to $170,000 in three months sounds aggressive, but in the context of history, it’s not unfounded—it's based on the patterns observed over the past five cycles.
What’s truly interes

#加密监管政策 Seeing Yi Lihua's words, I am reminded of several key moments over the past decade. The ICO bubble in 2017, the despair of the bear market in 2018, the panic sell-off during 3/12 in 2020... Each time, someone was shouting "This time is different," but those who truly made money were never the traders chasing emotions.
His judgment that "the last major negative factor after Japan's rate hike" is something I need to ponder carefully. Looking back at history, the macro interest rate cycle has indeed been a watershed for crypto assets. The wave of 2021-2022, when the Federal Reserve's agg

#AI交易应用 Seeing Tether's move this time reminds me of some past events. I still remember the 2017 bull market, when everyone was debating the future of stablecoins—some said it was a bubble, others said it would change finance. Looking back now, stablecoins have survived and are doing better and better.
The AI wallet announced by Paolo this time may seem like a new concept at first glance, but upon closer inspection, it’s actually a new chapter of an old story. From MtGox’s simple interface, to Coinbase’s improved user experience, and now to AI assistants—the evolution of crypto payments is al

#加密货币监管政策 When I saw this news, the first thought that flashed through my mind was 2013. That year, Bitcoin surged from ¥1000 to ¥8000 and then fell back. Our group argued fiercely on forums, debating whether cryptocurrencies were a scam or not. Over ten years have passed, and platforms like Circle and Ripple, once looked down upon by traditional finance circles, are now entering the US financial system.
This is not just about a license. The significance of the Federal Trust Bank's status is understood by those who experienced the Tongzhou Bay incident in 2014, the ICO boom in 2017, and the T

#比特币价格走势 The $86,000 to $92,000 range looks very familiar. Looking back at historical records, similar oscillations occurred before the 2017 bull market top, during the correction period in 2021, and even in the rebound phase of 2019 — back then we called it "main force accumulating," now analysts call it "profit-taking" and "games before options expiration." The essence hasn't changed, only the participants and leverage scale have.
Wintermute said that year-end portfolio adjustments and tax considerations are driving factors. I heard this ten years ago — back then, it was before there were m

#预测市场 Watching the probability of Bitcoin reaching $100,000 this year on Polymarket drop from an optimistic expectation to 11% brings a familiar feeling. I have experienced this feeling in 2017 and 2021—whenever the year-end approaches, the market begins to self-reflect, knocking down once confident targets one by one.
I remember at the end of 2021, many were confident that Bitcoin would break $100,000 in November, only to start blaming December, saying "It will definitely work next year." The current 11% actually reflects what the market is saying honestly. The probability of reaching $95,00

#稳定币市场竞争与发展 Seeing CZ's words, I am reminded of the wild growth of stablecoins in 2017. Back then, we all thought USDT was the endgame, but then USDC and BUSD took turns, and now FDUSD and USD1 are here.
This logic is actually very familiar—every new competitor that appears claims to be "more transparent," "safer," and "more profitable." Stablecoins have evolved from version 1.0 to 1.5, but essentially, they are still solving an old problem: how to provide real value feedback to users while ensuring stability. The "lying flat" stablecoins like USDT and USDC are indeed no longer meeting the de

#AI与加密货币结合 Seeing this QCP analysis, my mind flashed back to the ICO frenzy of 2017. Back then, it was the same—capital flooded in like a tide, every project claiming to be the future, with fundraising numbers exaggerated one after another, but very few projects actually turned the raised funds into revenue. The final result, as everyone knows, was a mess.
The current AI infrastructure investment boom reminds me of a similar pattern. Funds keep pouring in, but monetization lags behind—this point hits the core. History has shown us that when investment growth far outpaces revenue growth, a rev

#AI与加密货币结合 Seeing this analysis of QCP, I suddenly recalled the ICO frenzy of 2017. Back then, we saw similar scenes—massive capital inflows, valuations soaring, but only a few projects could generate cash flow. Many believed that technology itself would automatically translate into value, but the 2018 crash proved many wrong, leaving countless investors with losses.
Today, the story of AI infrastructure sounds very familiar. Continuous capital inflows into chips, computing power, data centers—one after another—but the monetization process is clearly lagging behind. This is not a new problem,

#比特币价格走势 Seeing the recent forecast reports, my mind is once again flooded with memories from those years. The unpredictable huge swings of Bitcoin in 2026, the million-dollar target price, the new all-time highs before the end of January… These numbers and dates remind me of the madness in 2017 and the long correction that followed.
Galaxy Research says the volatility is too great to predict, but new all-time highs are still possible. I find this statement very meaningful. It’s actually saying — we are at a critical turning point. Looking back from 2024 now, every price breakout has been ac

#证券代币化与RWA Seeing the SEC give the green light to DTC, I have to be honest—this is not some sudden surprise, but a long-planned institutional evolution. From Nasdaq's first proposal in September 2025 to DTC receiving the no-action letter in December, the entire timeline is quite clear—regulators are not opposing but cautiously paving the way.
Having navigated this space for many years, I’ve seen too many cases where technological innovations are directly suppressed by regulation. But this time is different. The SEC’s attitude is actually very pragmatic—they haven't banned the application of b

#比特币价格走势与预测 Looking at the drop from 80% to 11% on Polymarket, a familiar feeling arises in my mind. This collapse of probability is something I’ve seen in 2017 and 2021. Each time, the pattern is the same—first, an exuberant consensus, then the gradual emergence of a gap between reality and expectations, and finally, the breakdown of confidence.
The $100,000 target was considered an attainable dream just a few weeks ago. Now, with an 11% predicted probability, it reflects not just a numerical change but a rapid cooling of market sentiment. I also notice that the probability of reaching $95,0

#美联储降息政策 Seeing the name Waller surface again, there's a sense of familiar historical repetition in my mind. More than a decade ago, after the financial crisis, the selection of the Federal Reserve Chair also triggered market speculation, and Bernanke's policy stance determined the asset allocation logic for the following ten years. Today’s situation feels quite similar, just with a different era background.
Waller’s policy position is actually quite clear—he is a firm supporter of interest rate cuts, and this tendency has already become apparent within the Federal Reserve. From his oppositio

#比特币价格走势 When I saw this message, the scene that flashed through my mind was the bottom range in 2015. The ETH/NASDAQ ratio bottomed near 0.11, RSI dropped below 30 into extreme oversold territory—this combination has appeared more than once in history, each time signaling a key reversal point.
I still remember those cyclical reviews from those years. Whenever the correlation between mainstream assets and crypto assets diverged to an extreme, mean reversion was as inevitable as physical laws. The current situation is quite interesting—there are also policy-level variables brewing behind the s

#加密货币监管 Seeing Peirce's draft proposal, what flashes through my mind is the regulatory upheaval of 2017. Back then, everyone was still debating whether Bitcoin was a security, and the SEC once wanted to ban crypto trading altogether. Fast forward to 2024, and the same SEC’s attitude has shifted to "we are ready to cooperate to promote compliant trading"—this transformation hides eight years of industry struggle and compromise behind it.
The questions Peirce raises are actually old hat, but this time, she is re-examining them in a way we are very familiar with. From lowering entry barriers to