#美联储政策 Seeing the interest rate swap indicating a further 3 basis points relaxation by the end of 2026, my mind flashes back to those moments ten years ago. The "811 Capital Account Reform" in 2015, the policy shift at the end of 2018, the liquidity flood after the 2020 pandemic—each Federal Reserve policy signal has stirred waves in the crypto market, though back then our sensitivity to these data points was far less than it is now.

Three basis points may seem negligible, but the implications behind them are worth pondering. Moving from the high interest rate environment at the end of last year to the expected easing cycle indicates that market confidence in a soft landing is gradually building. Looking back at history, whenever the Federal Reserve initiates a rate cut cycle, risk assets tend to experience a recovery period—provided the market does not preemptively overextend these expectations.

What’s different this time is that the crypto market has already gone through its era of wild growth. Projects that once relied on liquidity accumulation have long vanished, and the surviving projects have been repeatedly filtered by the market. When easing policies arrive, I pay more attention to: who is building real value, and who is merely repeating past bubble patterns.

There is still time until 2026, but this signal is enough to prompt a reevaluation of current allocation logic. Policy cycles are part of the macro backdrop; true winners are often those projects that do not rely solely on liquidity but possess intrinsic growth drivers. Past lessons tell me that there is only a thin line between proactively embracing trends and blindly following them—separated by a clear judgment.