#BTC是否会突破12万

I think this week #BTC有望突破12万 there are two major pieces of information in the market:
1. The Federal Reserve lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00%, marking the second consecutive meeting of rate cuts, in line with market expectations.
2. The Federal Reserve FOMC statement announced that it will end the balance sheet reduction on December 1. (Currently reducing $5 billion in U.S. Treasuries and $35 billion in MBS each month)
Federal Reserve FOMC Statement: After ending the balance sheet reduction on December 1, the principal redemption of mortgage-backed securities will be reinvested in short-term government bonds.
As I mentioned earlier, after the 20th is a good rebound point. Currently, the key focus on the trend of $BTC can refer to the selling price in my chart, around 1140055.36. As long as it breaks through, or continues to maintain, there is still a probability of an upward breakthrough.
The current market's interest rate cuts are said to have almost been fully digested, due to the massive influx of whales and the soaring prices of various cryptocurrencies. However, I want to tell you that it has not been fully digested. What we need to consider is that the second major positive factor, which is also the biggest benefit, is what Powell mentioned about ending QT (which is likely to be announced not long after the interest rate cut information). It can be understood as:
QE (Quantitative Easing) = Printing Money + Spraying Water
The central bank has activated the printing press to inject money into the market, with the aim of stimulating the economy and making money more abundant and cheaper.
QT (Quantitative Tightening) = Collecting Money + Draining
The central bank is taking back the money it previously injected into the market and "destroying" it, with the aim of cooling down the economy, curbing inflation, and making money scarcer and more expensive.
Stopping QT along with interest rate cuts can be understood as a super bullish factor, (one of the reasons for the stock market surge) as the triggers for bull markets in the past few decades have often been due to this.
How to understand it?
Stopping QT can be understood as a water tank that is too full (excess market funds leading to inflation), and it has been continuously scooping water out of the tank (QT draining). Now, the action of scooping water has stopped. However, while the scooping action has ceased, the water level does not decrease; it does not mean new water is being added. This implies that the liquidity in the financial system has reached its bottom line, and the most tense moments are over. The market regains confidence! A signal for a policy shift.
The interest rate cut can be understood as injecting liquidity. After stopping the water scooping, it determines that there is not enough water in the tank (indicating the risk of economic recession), so it opens the faucet and starts injecting cheaper and larger amounts of new water into the tank. In other words, the interest rate cut directly reduces borrowing costs (making corporate loans, personal mortgages, and auto loans cheaper), while the returns on the money in banks decrease. This will strongly stimulate companies and individuals to invest and consume. Funds will flow out of conservative bonds and deposits, desperately seeking places that can provide higher returns. With funds flooding in, the cryptocurrency market, as a "risk asset" characterized by high risk, high return, and high volatility, will be impacted.
Especially mainstream cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin will be seen as "digital gold" and a tool for hedging against inflation, attracting a large influx of funds. (Directly beneficial)
Warm reminder, real estate will also be stimulated. Increase activity.
The market has completely shifted from the fear of "funds continuously tightening" to the frenzy of "funds about to become abundant." (This is why we see major cryptocurrencies soaring one after another.)
The cost of capital has significantly decreased in a short period: interest rate cuts have made the "price" of global funds cheaper. For example, buying U.
The 100% win rate whale added over 100 long positions of $BTC again on the morning of the 26th, perhaps because of this. He closed his long positions in BTC yesterday, the 29th, but the long positions of $ETH and SOL with 5x leverage have not been closed.
The overall focus is on the resistance level of BTC 114,000 to 115,000, and the breakthrough concept is still present @Gate Square_Official
Alright, that's all for now. Follow me, a detail-oriented blogger.